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What's ahead for stocks - To be a savvy investor, you need to understand the signposts that might affect the market. Here are the week's most important stories and what you should watch for.

By Charley Blaine

Three important questions about the economy came up this week, and they may be answered next week.

How the answers turn out may well signal where the market may end next week and, perhaps, in December.

The market ended Friday with the major averages down slightly and off for three straight days. But the declines were so modest, compared with a big rally on Monday, that the market was little changed for the week.

The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU), down 14 points to 10,318 on Friday, ended the week up 0.5%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) dropped 2 points on Friday to 1,091 but ended the week down 2 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was down 11 points to 2,146 and fell 1% on the week.

The markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.

The Nasdaq's performance leads to . . .

Question No. 1: Where is technology going? The question is prompted by Dell's (DELL) weak earnings report late Thursday. Sales for the fiscal fourth quarter were down 15% from a year ago and lower than expected. So were earnings. The company said one problem was that Microsoft (MSFT) didn't release its new Windows 7 operating system until the fourth quarter. (Microsoft publishes MSN Money.)

Plus, business spending has not begun to recover, and the bulk of Dell's business comes from corporate customers.

Dell's results -- and its losing second place in personal computers to Acer -- may be unique to Dell. The market will get a better picture of that Monday when Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reports its fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings.

HP is expected to report earnings of $1.13 a share, up from $1.03 a year ago, on revenue of $30.4 billion. Revenue is expected to be down 9.7%.

The key is how HP, the top PC maker, describes its PC business. It markets computers largely through retailers. So it has a big consumer franchise. But it also has a big corporate business.

Question No. 2: Is housing dead or alive? The news for housing this week was miserable. A big decline in housing starts in October to an annualized 529,000 units -- 76% lower than the January 2006 peak -- was largely driven by a big drop in apartment construction. Mortgage delinquencies now affect more than 10% of all outstanding mortgages.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI), No. 2 in volume, fell 15.4%, worst among S&P 500 stocks on Friday, after reporting a larger-than-expected loss for the fiscal third quarter. The company said it was not yet seeing a lot of market improvement.

Next week brings three more important looks at the housing market:

First up is existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors on Monday. IHS Global Insight sees the October rate hitting 5.85 million units, up from 5.57 million units in September and up 18% from a year ago. Any number that beats September's sales rate is a bullish signal. Probably a third, maybe more, will come from first-time homebuyers scrambling to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit as well as foreclosed homes being unloaded by lenders.

Next is the S&P/Case-Shiller Index for September, due Tuesday. This tracks sale prices of existing homes in 20 major markets. The index has been trending higher since April or so.

Last is new-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. IHS Global sees slippage to a 394,000-unit sales rate, based on declining building permits and the 13-month period it takes to sell a new home. An important point about new-home sales: Typically, people who already own a home form the core of new-home buyers. Builders aren't generally looking for first-time buyers.

Question No. 3: Has the U.S. dollar bottomed? For the pros on Wall Street, this was a big and important question. Granted, the dollar didn't rise much. The U.S. Dollar Index was up just 0.4% to 75.73. The dollar was up 1.1% against the British pound, 0.3% against the euro and nearly 2% against the Canadian dollar. The greenback posted its fourth straight weekly loss versus the yen.

The dollar has been trading lower because traders believe the Federal Reserve when it says it will keep interest rates near zero to encourage economic growth.

Nonetheless, the week's move higher had an important impact on stocks if only because nobody expected it. It hit oil prices, and energy stocks were among the week's biggest losers.

It hit companies that derive most of their business from outside the United States, including Caterpillar (CAT), which was off 1.4% for the week.

But what seems to be happening is that, for now anyway, there's a worry that a number of stock and bond markets are getting too frothy, perhaps including those in the United States. And Japanese investors aren't happy at all. The Nikkei 25 Index is down more than 11% since August as the yen has appreciated.

Two reports should be mentioned: A second look at how the economy performed in the third quarter is due Tuesday. The initial read on gross domestic product showed 3.5% annual growth. Most analysts see that number falling as more data have come in.

The Conference Board reports on its Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday as well. The number is expected to rise, but the dicey news about economic conditions may depress the index.

And look for a gain in durable-goods orders, which the Commerce Department will report on Wednesday. That may be the week's best news (watch the videos above for more details).

Besides Hewlett-Packard, earnings are due from:

Monday: Campbell Soup (CPB)

Tuesday: Bookseller Barnes & Noble (BKS), whose Nook e-book is sold out until January, ketchup maker H.J. Heinz (HNZ) and clothier J. Crew (JCG).

Wednesday: Bookseller Borders (BGP), farm and construction equipment maker Deere (DE) and upscale retailer Tiffany (TIF).

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Monday, November 23, 2009 8:13:11 AM
Uhmmm...   where to start..

OK..  How about we start with American companies needing to placate Wall  Street not just for annual reports, but for meeting "expectations" almost weekly.  It's absurd to say the least.  Of course, the Wall Street brokers don't want to mention the fact that as has been shown by very recent history, the markets are truly nothing more than huge legalized Ponzi schemes.  I can't get my 'market value' unless someone else is willing to pay that price for the stock I'm selling.

Of course this isn't just American investors, it's a global game people have all fallen prey to. 

Now, you add in the debt this country is acquiring, at an entirely unsustainable rate and you start to get the true picture.  Wall street brokers will always make their money...  they get commissions on the trades they make, they don't care if you earn any profit on your trade, they still get their commission.  Of course it behooves them to provide you all the information you can consume to become an 'active' trader.  The more you trade, the more THEY make.  I know a number of floor brokers who don't and won't own stocks.  They admit they're like drug dealers, they don't consume their own product.

One last thing to think about.  The market will do whatever the brokers want it to.  But when the Communist Chinese leader chastises the American President on the size, reach and DEBT of the American government, doesn't it give you pause?


Monday, November 23, 2009 7:45:07 AM
dddogg i was just reading your post, it was very interesting.  i have just one question.  what is a panet?
Monday, November 23, 2009 5:21:08 AM

I'm not going to argue with someone who can't see past their own nose.

An economy that depends on nothing but consuming earthly resources 24/7/365 at a faster and faster pace cannot end good.

 

You are right, it started before the 60's and never should have. What we are experiencing now is a realization that we have been wasting our resources on useless crap for the past 60 years. Only sixty years! Imagine what it will be like in sixty more if we keep burning up important resources for stupid things like motor sports and other useless toys.

 

Wait and see.... As far as the economy goes, people will just have to learn to go back to basics. Walk, ride a bike, plant a garden, and live in smaller homes and consume much much less.

 

Gone are the days where young college kids dream about living in 20,000 sf mansions spending long days out on cigarette boats speeding around at 90mph burning up gallons of gas and polluting both water and air.

 

Those days are gone and will never be back.

And THAT is a GOOD thing.

We are killing the planet...I have traveled all over it... It isn't as big as you think.

Don't believe me... Go take a nice cool drink out of the Chesapeake Bay. Or, any other bay.

 

Sunday, November 22, 2009 8:25:58 PM

here comes trouble and streamerUSA...

Couldn't have said it better!....both right and right on!

Sunday, November 22, 2009 8:11:50 PM

mfwic.....

How old are you?  20? 21?......back in the sixties rivers used to catch fire.....They are clean now.....cars have used unleaded gas and catalytic converters since 1975....the list goes on.   We are one of the cleanest countries in the world.....and getting better everyday.....no thank's to wacos like you.   but, you wing nuts will destroy the ecomony in the name of enviroment. 

Kill the panet.....what an arrogant jerk you are..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Published Nov. 20, 2009

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