Not only has the market hammered 401k accounts, but even the bedrock of retirement income, Social Security, has started looking more vulnerable. Social Security trustees recently announced that the fund would be depleted four years earlier than expected, in 2037. After that point, if nothing changes, benefits will be paid from the taxes collected on current workers, which will make up only about three quarters of the scheduled benefits.
Before panicking about how to make up for the shortfall or bemoaning the unfairness of the system for today's young workers, consider this: Something will probably change.
A new type of savings account could replace or augment 401k's, Social Security could be overhauled, or people might even get in the habit of saving more money on their own. Here are five possible scenarios for what could replace the traditional 401k-Social Security arrangement:
Participation rates spike. Only about seven in 10 workers bother to sign up for 401k's when the plans are offered, but if employers automatically enroll workers (with employees given the option of removing themselves later), participation rates shoot up to 90%. That leads some policy experts to recommend automatic enrollment -- or even forced participation -- for all employees who have access to such plans.
"Auto-enrollment would be more effective than changing matches," says Andrew Biggs, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. That's because raising matching contributions doesn't have a clear effect on people's participation rates, perhaps because workers are unaware of the specifics of the matches. "I wouldn't be morally offended if we forced everybody to participate, although politically, auto-enrollment makes more sense," says Biggs.
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If the market plunged before they retired, then Uncle Sam would make up the difference. If a relatively modest guaranteed rate of return were chosen, such as 6%, she says, then the government would rarely have to step in, so the cost would be minimal. Another option is to guarantee just a 2% or 3% return but to allow investors to keep any higher return provided by the market. If the government found itself needing to pony up during bad periods like the current one, then, Munnell says, "it can take on more debt and spread the losses over several generations," instead of forcing soon-to-be retirees to absorb most of the pain.
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A new type of universal savings account takes hold. Because only about half of workers have the option of participating in some kind of 401k plan, much attention has focused on workers who lack such vehicles. David Walker, former U.S. comptroller general, supports creating a new type of savings account that would be available to everybody and offer a range of investments at low cost. Workers could make automatic deductions from their paycheck into this new account. This type of device has been described as the "auto-IRA," or automatic individual retirement account, and has been endorsed by both President Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
The AARP has also gotten behind the proposal. "Before we talk about creating more avenues for saving for retirement, we want to address the population who has no options -- no pension, no 401k, no opportunity to save," says Cristina Martin-Firvida, the AARP's director of economic security. She says that some 75 million Americans currently have no access to a workplace savings plan.
Continued: A reformed Social Security
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