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Through it all, health care is expected to remain a job-market stalwart. Educators are also in demand. Over the next decade, "there are a large number of teachers who are nearing retirement and who will have to be replaced at all levels of education," said Jon Sargent, an economist with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry watchers offer mixed outlooks for technology: It's been relatively strong of late and may not drop off too much, though there often can be "churn and volatility," Challenger said.
The consumer question
Another possible weak spot: retail. Consumers hit by high gas and food prices, and the effect of lower home values on their net worths, may pull back on spending. That could affect hiring at various retail jobs.But the U.S. consumer is often surprisingly resilient. "You can never bet against him or her, but most of us believe consumption is going to trail off significantly in this and coming quarters," said Bernstein, of the Economic Policy Institute.
One reason: "Wage growth has not kept pace with inflation in the last few months. Once you buy the groceries and fill up the tank, there's a lot less left for other purchases," Bernstein said. "Demand for labor is derived in part from consumer demand."
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To the degree that consumers' and corporations' pocketbooks are pinched, nonprofit organizations could also get hit. "Nonprofits may be seeing fewer contributions and would have less ability" to add jobs, Koropeckyj said.
Financial services' effects
The subprime-mortgage mess "has enormous knock-off impact," Johnson, of Johnson Associates, said."If you don't do deals, you don't need a lawyer. You don't need a printer. You don't need a late-night car service picking stuff up," Johnson said. "You have people like accountants, consultants, lawyers, all kinds of professionals that service financial-service firms, from caterers to limo drivers," affected by the industry slowdown.
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Meanwhile, some states will see weaker job markets than others, Bernstein said, pointing to California and Florida because of their softer housing markets and to Michigan and Ohio because of concerns about manufacturing jobs. New York City will be hard hit by the subprime mess, Johnson said.
For more on expected employment increases and decreases, see the Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections report (.pdf file).
Looking ahead over the next decade, the bureau says cashiers (other than gambling), stock clerks, telemarketers and computer programmers are among the 30 occupations likely to see the largest employment decreases.
This article was reported and written by Andrea Coombes for MarketWatch.
Published Jan. 11, 2007
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