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Don't think for a minute that a Democratic Congress would bring major change in Washington policy.
Democrats have no real interest in a wide-scale rollback of tax cuts, in forcing an immediate withdrawal from Iraq or in impeaching the president. Even if they did, they wouldn't have the power.
In both the House and the Senate, there's likely to be an almost even balance of power, whichever party the voters put in formal control. Each will have the ability to block the other's dearest wishes.
Still, if Democrats win the House, as the odds now favor, they will set the agenda, foiling many of President Bush's plans. And they'll exercise much closer oversight over the administration's foreign and domestic policies.
If Democrats also were to manage to take the Senate -- a less likely but growing possibility -- their power would double. With the two parties maneuvering for an edge leading up to the 2008 presidential election, the administration would have no choice but to compromise to get anything done.
Here are some areas where a Democratic Congress would hold some sway:
Taxes. Democrats would block Bush's efforts to make all of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent and to fully repeal the estate tax. However, they might agree to extend some of Bush's middle-class tax cuts, such as the higher child care credit. Making college tuition tax deductible would be a fair bet under a Democratic Congress, and if Republicans lose control, oil companies may lose some tax breaks.
Minimum wage. Democrats would likely push through a hike.
Immigration. Ironically, Bush will have a greater chance of getting the guest-worker program he wants with Democrats in control of the House.
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Stem cell research. A Congress controlled by Democrats would probably allow federal funding for stem cell research. But another Bush veto would be difficult to override.
Court appointments. The slender margin of power in Congress would force Bush to shun polarizing candidates for the Supreme Court and other federal positions, whether or not Democrats actually controlled the Senate. Nominees deemed too far from center wouldn't be able to win confirmation.
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Formal investigations of the administration. Some official probes into charges of mismanagement and corruption are certain. The best bets: investigations of cost overruns and possible fraud in Iraq reconstruction, rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina and no-bid homeland security contracts.
Social Security. It's hard to see progress on real reform with both parties so far apart on the basics, though both talk a good game. Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), who is in line to chair the House Ways and Means Committee, insists that Bush must first abandon the centerpiece of his plan -- individual retirement accounts. That's not going to happen.
In addition, if the Democrats take Congress, count on them to use their newfound authority to schedule hearings and control committee resources to push some of their favorite initiatives, including universal health care, more-generous Medicare benefits and steps to combat global warming. They'll also be more outspoken in pressing for changes in the approach to the war in Iraq. But that'll be tempered by the need to sound tough on national and homeland security.
- By Richard Sammon, Kiplinger.com
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