145 billion reasons to buy Big Tobacco

By Robert Walberg

Big Tobacco can wheeze a little easier now that the Florida Supreme Court upheld the lower court’s decision to throw out the $145 billion in damages awarded by a jury in the case known as Engle vs. Liggett.

The decision is a huge victory for the tobacco industry. The industry can now free up the hundreds of millions of dollars held in reserve in case the decision had gone the other way. For investors, it means that tobacco stocks – considered a safe haven during rough economic times -- are worth another look. In a minute, I'll tell you which tobacco stocks will lead the resurgence that began with Thursday's decision.

Crippled no more

First, here's what happened in Florida: The state's high court ruled that the damage amount, the largest ever at the time, was excessive as a matter of law and would “result in an unlawful crippling of the defendant companies.”

Howard Engle, a Florida pediatrician, brought the class-action lawsuit against the five biggest US tobacco companies nearly twelve years ago. In 2000, the jury found that the tobacco companies had deceived the public about the dangers of smoking and awarded ailing Florida smokers -- estimated at more than 300,000 -- damages in the extraordinary amount of $145 billion. Not surprisingly, the tobacco companies appealed the decision and a Florida appeals court overturned the damages in 2003.

The high court also upheld the appellate court decision to decertify the class of plaintiffs in the Engle case. Though the Florida Supreme Court reinstated two individual damage awards totaling $6.9 million, the ruling will discourage class-action attorneys from bringing suits against the industry in the future -- a big win for big tobacco. Historically, the industry has won roughly 9 out of every 10 cases brought forth individually -- a record that tends to keep single plaintiffs from undergoing the expense of a lengthy, uncertain trial.

Opponents of big tobacco tried to find a few positives in the ruling including the fact that the court upheld a couple of the original findings: That smoking causes cancer and heart disease, that nicotine is addictive, and that the cigarette-makers sold “defective and unreasonably dangerous" products. But none of those rulings was groundbreaking, nor will they prove a considerable burden to the tobacco industry going forward.

Who wins?

On this front, the biggest winner is probably Carolina Group (CG, news, msgs), the tracking stock for Lorillard Tobacco, a division of Loews (LTR, news, msgs). The company can now put the $900 million-plus that it was holding in reserve to work paying down its intercompany debt and potentially bolstering its dividend. The current yield is 3.5%. Carolina Group’s stock reacted to the news by surging 4.8% Thursday to a new 52-week high.

Another obvious winner is Altria Group (MO, news, msgs). The stock, up 5.8% Thursday to a new 52-week high, is expected to move quickly now to sell its remaining stake in its Kraft (KFT, news, msgs) business. The financial windfall from such a move should enable the stock to continue climbing in the weeks and months to come. Traders should note that Altria not only hit a new high in today’s session, but that it broke out of a relatively narrow seven point trading range that had persisted since September of last year. A move to the mid- to upper-$80s is now highly probable over the next six to 12 months.

The rest of the industry enjoyed similar gains, with Reynolds American (RAI, news, msgs) up 3.8% and Vector Group (VGR, news, msgs) gaining 1.1%. Only the latter failed to establish a new 52-week high.

Though the industry will continue to face legal challenges ahead, today’s decision removes a major barrier to the stocks over the short- to intermediate-term, making the group a very attractive place to be for investors concerned with the state of the market and the economy. The Fed may kill the economy with more rate hikes. Or maybe it's the housing market's demise that does it, or North Korean missiles. Whatever. People will still smoke. Look for tobacco stocks to continue outpacing the market in the months ahead, with Altria, Carolina Group, and UST (UST, news, msgs) pacing the gains.

Robert Walberg is a financial writer based in Chicago, Ill. He was formerly chief equity analyst at Briefing.com. He is a regular guest on CNN's Moneyline and CNBC's Power Lunch. Mr. Walberg ran for Congress in Illinois in 1994.

At the time of publication, Walberg did not own or control shares of companies mentioned in this column.