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CAPS Commando / Russell Carpenter3/10/2008 12:01 AM ET

A stock as solid as concrete

Shares of Cemex are down, but this century-old company is far from out. It gets a perfect five-star rating in our CAPS system.

  • Sell 150 shares of Vanguard Small Cap ETF (VB, news, msgs) at the market open.

  • Purchase 350 shares of Cemex (CX, news, msgs) at the market open.

Strategy Lab is MSN Money's stock-picking challenge. To learn more about the game -- and the contenders -- click here.

OK, I admit it. This week's stock selection is in a downright boring business -- cement. If you feel a big yawn coming on, I encourage you to grab another cup of coffee or grab a couple of toothpicks to keep your eyelids propped open.

Because while the business might be downright boring, I think the long-term returns to shareholders of this company will be anything but boring in the coming years.

About 38% off its 52-week high of $41.36 per share and trading at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of only 9.7, I'm finding shares of Cemex (CX, news, msgs) rather attractively priced at the moment.

Certainly the recent housing/construction slump in the U.S. has hurt Cemex and its share price, as the U.S. accounts for a sizable portion of Cemex's sales. Furthermore, while the U.S. housing market isn't expected to turn around tomorrow, this is a temporary setback in an otherwise long-term bullish worldwide trend. Places like China and India will continue to expand their infrastructures -- and that means cement, and lots of it.

That's the same logic behind another of my picks, Lufkin Industries (LUFK, news, msgs).

Additionally, Cemex might just make a decent hedge against a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, as Cemex is a worldwide player selling cement in more than 50 countries -- not only in the Americas, but also Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

I'm not the only one who's bullish on Cemex. This stock sports the highest possible rating from readers using our CAPS stock-rating system. That's five stars -- and by now you know I think that those stars matter.

In fact, about 98% of all CAPS players voicing an opinion on Cemex think that it will outperform the market average.

Video on MSN Money

MSN Money Strategy Lab player Russ Carpenter © MoneyShow.com
The CAPS Commando's strategy
MSN Money Strategy Lab panelist Russell Carpenter explains his investment strategy and market outlook.

CAPS player "Pencils2," who is in the top 100 out of more than 46,000 raters, has this to say about Cemex:

"Cement is an industry that will be booming in India, Russia, South America and China (along with other areas), and Cemex has operations in all of those places. A 100-year-old company with increasing income, high earnings per share, low P/E compared to the industry average and the price has recently taken a hit. I see a great opportunity here for the long run as long as cement stays in high demand."

So far, so good with CAPS

I'm also selling shares in the Vanguard Small Cap ETF (VB, news, msgs), once again continuing my strategy of staying fully invested via ETFs and slowly replacing these holdings with individual stocks -- a strategy that so far seems to be working quite well.

Sure, my Strategy Lab portfolio is down a hair so far, but my individual stock picks -- two long positions on five-star CAPS stocks and one short position on a one-star CAPS stock -- are all beating the averages as of this writing by anywhere from 17.02% (Lufkin) to 2.66% Covance (CVD, news, msgs). Two of them are making money, the other about even, while the market has been down.

Of course, this is a really small sample for our CAPs portfolio experiment, and real investing performance is, I believe, measured in years, if not decades. But I can't help but think, "So far, so good."

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