No predictions and no holding back

• Buy $20,000 worth of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI, news, msgs) at the market open.

• Buy $20,000 worth of Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV, news, msgs) at the market open.

• Buy $20,000 worth of Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO, news, msgs) at the market open.

• Buy $20,000 worth of Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB, news, msgs) at the market open.

• Buy $10,000 worth of Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO, news, msgs) at the market open.

• Buy $10,000 worth of Lufkin Industries (LUFK, news, msgs) at the market open.

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As I mentioned in my first journal, when it comes to predicting overall market direction in the coming weeks and months, I haven't a clue. Truth is, when it comes to making those kinds of predictions, I've never even really tried.

One investing principle that I've always followed in my real-life portfolio is to stay fully invested. I never have any appreciable amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. Sure, holding some cash might help me during the downswings, but it'll also hurt me during the upswings. Since I don't know in advance when those will be, I personally stay fully invested so as to gain maximum exposure to the long-term upward trend in the stock market.

All ETFs, almost

I'm putting the bulk of my portfolio into an array of Vanguard ETFs, spanning large, medium and small caps, as well as adding a sprinkling of international exposure. I admit that I'm overlapping a bit here in my selection (some of the ETFs share common holdings), but these ETF holdings are kind of a "parking lot," allowing me to stay fully invested while I scour the market for what I think are compelling individual stock investments.

The first such individual company I'm selecting is Lufkin Industries (LUFK, news, msgs), and I'll be selling off pieces of the ETFs and putting that money into additional individual holdings as time progresses.

Lufkin is, in my opinion, a particularly attractive value today. Not only does it currently sport the highest possible rating in CAPS (five stars), CAPS players who are predicting Lufkin will outperform the market outnumber those who predict it will underperform the market by 348 to 7. What's more, among CAPS "All-Stars" (those whose player rating is in the top 20% of all CAPS players), the sentiment is unanimous -- with 130 predicting Lufkin to outperform the S&P 500 Index ($INX) and zero predicting it will underperform.

In fact, I'm such a fan of Lufkin that I highlighted the stock in my "EldrehadsPicks" CAPS blog back in October, and I've encountered nothing to date that has led me to change my mind. If you're interested in more of my thinking on Lufkin, you can find it here.

So, once again, my mantra for this week (and the coming weeks and months) is to stay fully invested with a selection of broad-based, low-cost ETFs, and adding what I think are particularly compelling values in individual stocks as time progresses.

Disclosure: I own shares in Vanguard Total Market index fund.