It's a hunt for great companies

What kind of market will we be seeing in Strategy Lab over the next six months?

Truth be told, I haven't a clue.

Sure, many interesting investing stories will unfold. They always do. For much of 2007, it was the subprime-mortgage mess. In the early part of this decade, it was the tech-stock meltdown (preceded by the dot-com boom). Centuries ago it was the craze over Dutch tulip bulbs.

Every day, thousands of people will continue to try to predict whether the Fed will cut or raise rates and by how much. Every day, thousands of people will try to determine which sectors are on the rise and which are headed for a fall. Thousands will look at the Consumer Price Index, productivity data and all sorts of other general economic indicators in an attempt to get some small glimpse of what's on the horizon.

I find many business and stock-market news stories interesting, if not fascinating, and likely will comment on them from time to time. But when it comes to making individual investing decisions, my focus usually isn't on overall market trends.

Ultimately, it's about companies

Case in point: I personally own shares of Costco Wholesale (COST, news, msgs), having established my original position in August of 2000 and added shares in 2001, 2002 and 2003. In that time, the market has seen periods of steep growth and steep decline. We've seen Fed rate changes and other short-term economic data that has caused the price of Costco's shares to both rise and fall.

Certainly these things have mattered somewhat, but what has mattered far, far more is how well the business has performed. How well has Costco performed with regard to inventory management, which is so critical for a low-cost, high-volume mass-retailer? How well has management faced the continual competitive threat posed by Wal-mart's (WMT, news, msgs) Sam's Club? In my mind, these things matter more.

This doesn't mean economic or market data should be ignored. Clearly, trends like an aging baby-boom generation (just one example among many) are going to influence the performance of all kinds of businesses and stocks, from health-care providers to cruise-ship companies to denture-adhesive manufacturers.

What it does mean, though, is that over the next six months I'll be focusing on what I always have: finding what I believe to be good businesses at reasonable prices that are well-positioned to provide market-beating returns for years to come.

If you look hard enough and are disciplined enough, I believe you can find great values in stocks no matter what the overall market is doing.