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I've spent this entire Strategy Lab contest urging people to be investors first, to avoid being stopped out of the market or falling victim to a short-term approach that can see numerous victories wiped out by a single loss or major moves on the upside missed because of the guessing game.
There is little time left in this contest, but there is a lifetime left for investing. That means riding out the waves by buying on weakness and understanding value. Avoiding the crowd is the only way to make the market a moneymaking machine.
In my final gasp for the finish line, I'm using all remaining funds to buy Birch Mountain Resources (BMD, news, msgs), a play on Canadian tar sands and higher crude oil prices. Part of this idea is admittedly about the hype, and part is about potential. Tar sands are going to play a role in the world's future energy picture. While alternative fuels are getting all the hype, demand is such that all the crops in the world can't push crude out of the picture.
Birch Mountain's chart isn't that attractive, but the recent volume is compelling, as is the fact that the stock has come down a lot over the past year. A close above $3.30 could take this stock to $4 quickly, and longer term this could easily be a $7 stock. It has higher than normal risk.
I'll update once more before the conclusion of the contest, but I want to say thanks to everyone; the e-mails and correspondence have been fantastic.
Below is an excerpt from my June 14 market commentary on WStreet.com:
"(June 13's) strong rally told many tales, including one of patience and endurance. This nation has become so knee-jerk in its responses to questions and challenges to everything that simple buying and holding of stocks is real tough if one happens to occasionally read, watch television or listen to the radio.
"Coupling this instant responsiveness is the notion the world is coming to an end any day now. I hear that if we don't do something about global warming today, the planet will perish tomorrow. (And that) if stocks stop moving higher, then they must immediately head lower. Financial instruments, much like relationships and life itself, ebb and flow. It's unreasonable to think one should bail at low tide, or one would be bailing a lot. If you're bailing all the time, you'll never be positioned for the big wave of prosperity.
"I wonder how many folks bailed on the market in the last week and now begin to regret it? The number has to be huge."
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