Separating the winners from the losers in the oil game is a little more complicated than you might think.

For starters, the oil companies are not all winners.

Take Sunoco (SUN, news, msgs). With 4,700 gas stations in 24 states, you would think the company would be doing great in today's environment. But Sunoco has had a tough few years, watching the price of its stock get cut in half. That's because Sunoco has no significant crude-oil supplies of its own and must fill its huge refineries with crude purchased on the open market.

Over the past few years, Sunoco has been squeezed between suppliers of crude, demanding ever-higher prices, and consumers, who would rather cut back on driving than pay $4 for a gallon of gasoline.

The same has been true for Valero Energy (VLO, news, msgs), a company that operates more than a dozen major refineries, mostly in the Southwest. Valero, too, has seen its stock price halved over the past few years.

Contrast those results with those at ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs). Exxon stock recently hit an all-time high as the company capitalized on its huge reserves of crude oil and its integrated refinery and marketing operations. BP (BP, news, msgs) is another company that has made billions on investments in its own supplies of crude.

Those results relate to a period when the price of crude was rising, but recent weakness could turn the tables. Oil prices hit historic highs this summer, and have since slid more than 40%. If crude supplies increase to the point where the price collapses, then refiners like Sunoco and Valero will be in a much stronger position, while the major integrated companies will tend to see weaker results.

Losers in the energy game are not hard to find. Make a list of businesses that use a lot of energy -- businesses in the transportation industry will tend to cluster at the top -- and you've got a pretty good start on a losers list. Although, even there, a winner will pop up where you least expect it. Southwest Airlines (LUV, news, msgs) managed to control its fuel costs with a forward-looking hedge strategy, so its planes now fly with fuel that's a lot cheaper than the stuff going into competitors' planes. Earlier this year, Southwest planes were flying on fuel that cost the company $2.35 a gallon, while competitors were paying about $4. Since 1998, the company has saved about $3.5 billion in fuel costs with smart hedges. Southwest backed off the hedging program as oil prices peaked, but with prices now falling, that could prove to be a shrewd move, as well.

Autos have been weak, as you might expect. But how about Honda Motor (HMC, news, msgs)? While competitors were being seduced by the profits to be gained from the manufacture of gas guzzlers, Honda remained true to its vision of practical, comfortable and affordable transportation. The company has held up well during the downturn. Further, Honda executives seem committed to the development of electric vehicles

that actually work and that conserve energy. That's an attitude likely to produce a pretty good return on an investment.

Here are five other winners that investors might want to think about, some fairly obvious and others not so:

1) Coal: While environmental concerns are holding back new coal-burning plants in the U.S., global demand for American coal is soaring as Europe and China stoke up their power generators and boost U.S. exports. Coal exports are expected to reach 80 million tons in 2008, compared with 59 million tons in 2007, and may rise to 120 million tons over the next few years. Shipping terminals in Newport News and Norfolk, Va., are dusting off old equipment and scrambling to add staffing to keep up with demand. In Baltimore, Consol Energy (CNX, news, msgs) rushed to repair rotten wood pilings at its export pier to keep up with the trainloads of coal arriving at the terminal. Consol is one of the United States' biggest coal producers. Its stock hit an all-time high in June but corrected sharply with the drop in oil prices. The same goes for competitor Arch Coal (ACI, news, msgs).

Tour a coal shipping yard

2) Ethanol: This industry is seeing growing pains. Ethanol specialist VeraSun Energy (VSE, news, msgs) saw its stock dive 70% recently on news that the company would book a huge loss. It seems the drop in the price of oil has put a crimp in the market for ethanol. The much larger Archer Daniels Midland (ADM, news, msgs) has a significantly broader product line. It has held up better during the downturn in crude, but it has still suffered significantly from slowing demand for ethanol. But in the long run, the prospects for ethanol appear likely to be better than today's stock prices suggest.

3) Wind power: On Louis Brooks' ranch outside Sweetwater, Texas, 78 wind turbines 28 stories high with blades that span 125 feet whir away, generating electricity and bringing the landowner more than $500 a month per turbine. Soon, this West Texas rancher plans to double the number of turbines on his property. If you're interested in investing in wind power, check out Australia's Babcock & Brown Wind Partners (BBWPF, news, msgs), one of the companies active in Texas, or the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, the Danish company Vestas Wind Systems (VWSYF, news, msgs).

See wind turbines in action

4) Solar power: Solar power is probably just about ready for prime time, and when it is, one of the winners will likely be MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR, news, msgs), a company that makes key components of many systems: silicon wafers that absorb sunlight and produce an electrical charge in response. MEMC produces plenty of other silicon products for the semiconductor industry, so this isn't a pure solar play. But a little diversification never hurt anybody.

5) The usual suspects: Integrated oil producers and exploration companies are obvious winners. But not all the names are well-known. For a pure play on

exploration and production, check out Anadarko Petroleum (APC, news, msgs). Looking for a company that does it all at a reasonable price? Look into Marathon Oil (MRO, news, msgs). Anadarko has some home-run potential; it's focused on exploration at a time when a big new find could bring huge rewards. Marathon is just plain cheap for a company in a great position to supply energy demands that are bound to grow.

Airplanes and natural gas

Of course, in the longest of long runs, companies focused on oil production are going to need to find something else to do, because the world is going to run out of oil. Over decades, the trends favor companies developing alternative sources of energy. Over the next few years, the picture is not so certain. As the world's economies begin to recover from the mortgage crisis, demand for oil products will likely increase, driving prices higher again.

For the short term, the oil companies are still sitting on top of the world, and the world isn't changing fast enough to threaten their position.

Published Sept. 26, 2008