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Extra9/29/2009 12:01 AM ET

401k's bounce back from wreckage

For younger savers, balances are now above what they were to start 2008. But pain remains, particularly for those with the most saved and those who stopped contributing.

By Christian Science Monitor

Many working Americans have clawed their way back from bear market losses to rebuild their retirement savings.

That news, released in a report earlier this month, is impressive; the stock market still isn't close to retracing its recession losses. Despite a strong rally since March, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) remains about 32% below its pre-recession high.

Millions of Americans with 401k plans are still struggling, but their position is much better than it was just a few months ago. That's the message from numbers released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, which tracks employer-based 401k retirement plans.

The EBRI survey (.pdf file) doesn't boil down its results into a single average for all 401k plans, but consider one important midcareer group: people who have been saving for 10 to 19 years with the same employer. Within this group, younger workers (below age 45) have average account balances that are 3% higher now than at the start of 2008, when the stock market was still near its peak. Workers over 45 tend to have account balances that are down since 2008, but by less than 4% on average.

Substantial gains

That's a huge improvement since a similar EBRI study just before the stock market's recovery this spring. Back in late January, these same people had account balances that had declined more than 20% (.pdf file) in a year, on average. That was true whether the account holders were below or above 45 years old. The EBRI study broke 401k plans into 13 categories, and found that people in nine of those categories have average balances above the early-2008 levels, while four are still below. The worst-off group, people over 55 who have been saving for more than 20 years, have average losses of 8%.

A couple of factors explain the rebound for younger workers.

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The stock market's rise since March has helped a lot, boosting everyone invested in equity funds.

But other reasons have more to do with the virtues of the "tortoise" than with people picking investments that have raced ahead like the fabled hare. Many 401k accounts are ahead of their early-2008 levels simply because people have kept contributing new money from their paychecks month by month.

In the EBRI report, people who are younger or who have been in their jobs fewer years are far more likely to have balances that are up since 2008. That's because new contributions are generally a higher share of the account value for them than for people who have been saving for more than a decade.

Danger of bailing out

The report doesn't endorse a particular approach to investing, but the evidence appears to confirm the virtues of sticking with a plan. Investors who held lots of stocks before the recession, then bailed out, would have suffered the losses without reaping the recent gains as equities recovered.

Video: 401k contributions on the rise

One standard approach to retirement saving, by contrast, is the "life cycle" fund. These blend stocks and bonds, and adjust the stock percentage downward as the account holder nears retirement. Some of the hardest-hit account holders have been people who haven't followed such a pattern -- those who were nearing retirement in 2008 but had more than 90% of assets in stocks.

Finally, after mentioning the tortoise and hare, let's not forget another fable: the ant and the grasshopper. The ant saved for the future. The challenge for America is that millions of workers are more like the grasshopper -- without any retirement plan. As of 2004, more than half of all households had zero savings in an employer-based 401k-type plan or tax-preferred savings account, according to the Retirement Security Project.

This article was reported by Mark Trumbull for the Christian Science Monitor.

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Tuesday, September 29, 2009 7:18:32 AM

"The EBRI study broke 401k plans into 13 categories, and found that people in nine of those categories have average balances above the early-2008 levels, while four are still below. The worst-off group, people over 55 who have been saving for more than 20 years, have average losses of 8%."

 

Are you kidding me? Do you just make this cr#p up?

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 7:20:46 AM

Stories like these are really disingenuous.  They often count ongoing contributions in the mix, and they always omit the projected gains that should have occurred, but have not, from being part of the loss.  Its much like the false reporting that consistently occurs when dealing with the job crises in America.  Unemployment gets undercounted and the new jobs that needed to be created just to keep up with population growth aren't mentioned at all.       

 

My 401K has been in existence since 1988 and it surely hasn't "bounced back".  From its peak to today, only 40.3 cents out of every 55 cents that had been there remain.  That loss continues to represent a whole lot more than the 8% referenced in the story as not having been recovered.  In my case the approximate 26 to 27% continuing loss is real easy to determine because the 401K was frozen since 2005 (no new contributions and no withdrawal).   

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 7:28:54 AM

I am years, if not decades from retirement, so I am in for the duration. Yes, it did hurt to watch the market over the last year or so, but I had to stay in. Never buy high and sell low. I knew the market would come back, if I could live long enough to see it, and it did. It turned out to be a good time to buy at the repressed prices. I did learn that as retirement nears, I will shift my investments into something more stable than the stock market.

 

One thing to remember... "the only market that matters is the one you buy in and the one you sell in. Everything else is just indigestion. "

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 8:17:35 AM
This article is total BS.  I have been auditing retirement plans for almost 15 years, all over this country.  ALL plans have lost 30-60% during 2007 AND 2008, and the underlying net assets are nowhere near the pre-loss levels.  In fact, they are still losing for the most part throughout 2009.

So obviously the authors of this article are working for the crooked politicians, bankers, and Wall St. executives that want you to continue throwing your money away in investments that are insider driven, and insider traded.  These people are trading derivatives and other alternative investments, many times piggy backed on the so-called safe investments you think you are putting your money in, in countries like China and Japan WHILE YOU ARE SLEEPING!  They pay guys to sit and watch the market day and night and they sell when an investment makes a gain faster than you can and before you can, leaving all the rest of the holders to ride the subsequent fall in prices all the way down.

And it doesn't matter whether you are the CEO, and lying about how good your investments are doing, because when you come to see me, I see the truth.  And the truth is, like mortgages, the entire stock market is for suckers who wish to give their money away to careless brokers and bankers to squander on whatever they want, comfortable in the knowledge that the government will later bail them out if they lose any money.

Wake up and fight back.  Put your money in cash, and keep it there.  At least that way, the balance will only go up, albeit slowly, and you won't have to lose sleep over the recessionary trends that have occurred rather consistantly for the last 90 years.  Oh, and by the way, I also do retirement planning, and can tell you most Americans when they come see me at 60, have not more than a year of retirement in the accounts and an unpaid mortgage they pray to get out from under by selling at a loss (once you add in the interest cost you paid all those years, you lose. That's right!)

Forget this kind of advice.  Its all lies!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:08:37 AM
Our family's 401k's appear to have have gone up in value the past few months but the truth is that the value has stopped sliding. Reasons for the 401k's value appearing to improve is 1) we've still put money in, 2) the massive losses on WS have slowed. The rate of return on the 401k still remains dismal and WS should not be surprised if more investors pull out ASAP or contribute less to the WS idiots, liars and cheats.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:21:32 AM

I think this article is about right.  I have 3 sizable 401k accounts from previous employers - frozen and no longer being contributed to.  The balance of each of these is now roughly 97% of what they were at their October 2007 high. Between January and March 2008 I had moved the balances out of stocks into 100% bond funds where they still sit.  I was very lucky I did this when I did.  I'm not even looking to time the market to get back to stocks.  I figure stock market is still below the point where I exited, therefore any time I get back in prior to the high will produce gravy.

 

In other words, contrary to Zeitgeist America's comments, all plans HAVE NOT lost 30-60% in 2007 and 2008.

 

BTW - I am a private business Information Technology professional.  I do not work for crooked politicians, bankers, or Wall Street.  Not that I don't think politicians, bankers and Wall Street are crooked.  These last 2 years have really solidified in my mind how greedy these people are.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:23:12 AM

Zeitgeist, what color is the sky in your world?  It's one thing to complain, but if you're going to claim to know something about 401-K's, you might cite figures with SOME bearing on the markets. Else you have ZERO credibility.  (I was down < 15% at the bottom).

 

I am recently retired and my 401-K was invested conservatively, giving me a nice hit of tax deferred income without much volatility.  It was about  80% short term bonds, and the rest in diversified stocks.

 

Thus, with NO contributions, it's about 5% above where it started  2008 now, since when the S&P hit 800, I gritted my teeth and put another 25% to work in diversified stocks (in increments) until the market got BACK above 800.  I had actually waited many years for a big pullback to start buying.  (Not being a pig, I just took 20% of what I'd added to stocks back out, and will continue doing that if the markets keep moving up meaningfully.)

 

So, despite your silly assertions, it is possible to even be up in a 401-K WITHOUT contributions -- it all depends on your asset allocation and investment style.  Given how far the market has come back and the fact that steady contributions DO help over the long term, the figures cited seem reasonable to me.   I recently had a friend in his mid 40's mention he was back to even on his 401-K - he contributes the max.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:25:08 AM
i am one of the people that is under 45 and have stuck with my 401k and left  it alone and kept contributing the same amount every month and i can tell u that this article is correct.  my 401k is over 10% higher than before the crash while my parents r still recouping their losses but getting close.  some of the comments and suggestions some of the people are making here are absurd. 
Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:29:49 AM

It’s called spinning the crap into a chocolate milkshake. I’ve got an old blender in my kitchen for the people who wrote this article if they want it.

 

Wall Street and their armies of sales people are naturally inclined to believe the wreckage they caused has been cleaned up. For many of them, it has been. They’re back to making big trading profits, commissions, and bonuses. Articles like this try to drive people to get them even more.

 

The real damage for the rest of us lies beyond the current numbers. The real damage is the collapse of investor faith that the financial industry even cares about long-term investors anymore. I’ve seen nothing in the way of real philosophical change or commitment from the financial industry to convince me that the roller coaster ride we are on is going to do anything but get wilder.

 

As a long-term investor near retirement, there is one number I focus on now. That number is 75% of the lowest value my equity portfolio hit during the last 2 years. That’s the safe number I use do my retirement planning. In a sense, it’s all that I have to spend no matter what level the S&P 500 is. Any value above my number is now too risky to rely on, and too high for me to consider putting any more money into the equities market. It’s a number that I hope I won’t have to revise downward again in my lifetime. But, if we get there, I probably will. Meanwhile, I’ll be a seller, not a buyer. I challenge any financial planner to advise why I should look at things differently.

 

Tuesday, September 29, 2009 9:35:44 AM
you are so full of BS! - My current account is down:
-1.23%
-396.26

Granted, this is not "Down" as far as the 30% from a few months ago, but it is still DOWN.  Down is Down.  If I would have had this money in Treasury notes, I would have lost nothing. 

 

There is a joke about 401k....

 

What starts with "F" and ends with "K" and is meant to screw the workers?

 

401(k)

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