The result was the disaster I've described above. The economy, which had been growing strongly, stalled. GDP, which was $89 billion in 1938, grew to just $89.1 billion in 1939.
And the damage wasn't worse only because Roosevelt forced a change in course so quickly. By April 1938, he had pushed new large-scale spending programs, totaling $3.75 billion, through Congress. Legislators later added $1.5 billion to the pot. The Fed, under Chairman Marriner Eccles, reversed course again and started to expand the money supply.
The annual deficit soared to $3.2 billion in 1939. That represented 45% of the government's revenue that year.
Couldn't possibly happen again, though, could it? In 1936, Roosevelt and his team didn't even have an economic theory to justify deficit spending in an economic emergency. John Maynard Keynes' "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" wasn't published until that year. We've now got a Fed chairman who has written and lectured extensively on the mistakes made by his predecessors. And unemployment is still rising. We certainly wouldn't try to cut the deficit or balance the budget while the ship is still taking on water, right? Right?
I wish I were more certain.
Not your average recession
A July CBS News/New York Times poll found that 58% of those Americans surveyed said the government should focus on reducing the budget deficit rather than on spending to stimulate the economy. Granted, that number is probably inaccurate to the high side because of the way the question was phrased (How about this instead: Do you think the government should focus on reducing the budget deficit or making sure that you have a job tomorrow?) -- but it is still remarkably consistent with earlier polling. In May, the same poll found that a majority of Americans thought that the Obama administration should shift from fighting the Great Recession to reducing the government deficit.Listen to all the voices -- not just here but even more stridently in Europe -- calling for a need to restore fiscal discipline. Listen to congressional speeches calling for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to exit the "free market" before it's too late to save even the bones of U.S.-style capitalism and before the Obama administration sells us into, gasp, socialism.
(I just wish someone, sometime making this charge would be specific about what kind of socialism he or she is talking about. Are we afraid that this administration wants this country to be Sweden or that it has a hankering for Stalin-era gulags and collective farms, where we all start the day singing to the glory of our tractors? There's a big difference. Maybe the speakers could wear hats or talk in funny accents to make their definitions clear.)
Video: When will the economy feel stronger?
The economists and policy wonks and wonkettes at the New America Foundation symposium I wrote about on Friday actually believe there's a chance we could do it again. Not by Congress cutting off the funding for the first stimulus package still flowing through the pipes, but by the House and Senate refusing to even consider a second stimulus if the economy looks like it needs one in 2011.
The year of the Big Test will be 2011. By that year, the money from the first stimulus will have been spent, and the economy will either be in the midst of a sustainable recovery or not.
I think anybody who tells you they can predict now whether we'll have a sustainable recovery under way in 2011 is either out to fool you or is fooling himself.
This isn't your average recession. This is a great big global recession coupled with a great big global financial crisis.
This Great Recession is therefore much more subject to fits and starts and reversals than the average recession, because every time the economy starts to run smoothly, the banking system stands ready to throw another wrench into the works.
I'm not predicting the return of 1937 in 2011. I don't think I've got the kind of super-X-ray economic vision to call that one right either. But I would like us not to get carried away by the 57% rally in the stock market (as of the close Sept. 18) and become convinced that everything is fixed.
I'd like to keep all the available tools on the table until, well, until we see unemployment halved to 5% or so (or whatever passes for normal these days), until we see truly functioning financial markets, until we see mortgage foreclosures going down, until we see credit card defaults back to pre-crisis levels and until we see some significant inflation in the economy.Until then, I'm hopeful, but I'll be damned if I'm going to get overconfident.
I'd like the 1937 recession to stay buried in the history books where it belongs.
Jim Jubak has been writing Jubak's Journal and tracking the performance of his market-beating Jubak's Picks portfolio since 1997 on MSN Money. He is the author of a new book, "The Jubak Picks," and writer of the Jubak Picks blog. He's also the senior markets editor at MoneyShow.com.
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