Anthony Mirhaydari: Dollar dominance as world's currency may be near an end

Extra11/24/2010 5:00 PM ET

Is the dollar's reign over?

The greenback is still the world's reserve currency of choice. Much of the world is rooting for its dominance, but the Fed wants to bring it down. Here's what's at stake.

By Anthony Mirhaydari
MSN Money

It's become somewhat of a national pastime to worry about the fate of the U.S. dollar. After all, the greenback is down 35% from its 2001 high. And it's down more than 52% from the all-time high it reached in 1985.

These concerns have found new life recently in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to print an additional $600 billion under the guise of a second round of "quantitative easing" -- dubbed QE2 -- following last year's $1.7 trillion money-drop operation designed to kick the economy into gear.

Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first alluded to QE2 back in August, the dollar has lost nearly 7%, posting all-time lows. Investors were driven to move assets away from the dollar out of fear that Bernanke, who has a fanatical focus on fighting deflation, would follow the steps he outlined in a 2002 speech by printing excess money to devalue the dollar and push inflation higher. (Read "Hiking inflation won't help, Ben" for more on this.)

The international community was outraged; it has a vested interest in a strong dollar. Leaders at this month's G-20 meeting in South Korea-- a financial conference of the 20 largest economies in the world -- railed against the Fed's move.

The ongoing crisis in the eurozone has helped the dollar regain some ground on other currencies over the last two weeks, but many questions remain. Will the Chinese target our currency in a trade war? Will the euro, backed by the hardcore inflation hawks at the European Central Bank, replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice? Do we need a radical move, like a return to the gold standard?

More generally, there is a nagging fear that the dollar is losing its place in the world as it comes under attack from enemies at home and abroad. So is the dollar dying? And if it is, is that a problem?

How a strong dollar has helped you

The simple fact is that Americans have benefited greatly from the dollar's role as the global reserve currency. Such status funnels the world's savings into the country, keeping interest rates lower than they would be otherwise. One study (.pdf file) found that foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury debt -- the preferred investment for idle dollars -- reduced long-term interest rates by about 1%.

This may not seem like much, but consider this: The Fed's epic $1.7-trillion money-printing operation last year is believed to have shaved only 0.5% off interest rates. The $600 billion QE2 operation likely will accomplish even less.

These actions subsidized all manner of credit-based spending, both by the government (President George W. Bush's tax cuts, President Barack Obama's stimulus package and the accumulation of the $13.7 trillion federal debt were all enabled by overseas savings held in U.S. dollars) and by households (foreign demand for mortgage-backed securities powered the housing boom and bust). So the dominant dollar helped the average citizen enjoy an era of low taxes, cheap credit and heady government spending.

The new reality

The pressure to end this era will only increase as France assumes the chairmanship of the G-20. French President Nicolas Sarkozy wants to have a serious discussion on the future of the international monetary system. He has frequently spoken out against the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and its role in contributing to global credit and trade imbalances -- factors that contributed to the 2008 credit crisis.

In Sarkozy's words, "what was true in 1945 can no longer be true today," referring to the post-WWII agreements known as Bretton Woods. That system secured the dollar's role as the linchpin of the global exchange-rate system.

U.S. dollar trade-weighted index
The simple truth, according to Barry Eichengreen, a University of California at Berkeley economist and an expert on the global monetary system, is that our multipolar world -- with China and a unified Europe becoming more assertive -- will eventually be matched by a multipolar currency system. And in his mind, this would be a better system than we have now.

But the realization of this vision depends on many things and won't happen overnight. So for now, the dollar's place is secure. But that means problems as well as benefits for the U.S.

Continued: Still the one 

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26Comments
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The American middle class can no longer support a world reserve currency.  There are simply no more industries left to export to countries w/ weaker valuations.
It's time the Chinese started carrying their weight.  Let them manage and support a world reserve currency.  While they are at it, they can have the world policeman role as well.
As a nation, economically, its better not to be #1.
11/29/2010 9:33 PM
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It is possible that Bernanke is putting pressure on the Chinese.  The ongoing trade imbalance is indicative of an undervalued Yuan - something working to our economic detriment as we replace productive capacity with unemployment and ever increasing debt to China. 

 

As we dig out from the devaluation of our homes with chaos and chicanery infesting our economy that possible strategy is undercut by a history of monetary mismanagement.  A history that is beginning to resemble a habit - a very bad one at that.  Sad to say, our nation faces an economic reckoning.  Monetarized debt doesn't promote long term prosperity, it invites long term problems.  

11/29/2010 7:54 PM
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Don't just give up.  Fight Progressives and New world order folks as traitors.
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Larry Summers (Obama's economic ex-chief) said the way out of recession is to stimulate exports through a weaker dollar. No surprise here. Expect at least 40-60% more dollar drop imo. Of course, that is very bad for 99% of Americans since everything we use will cost proportionately more.

I suggest everyone read Bill Fleckenstein's articles here at MSN. His advice is invaluable.

11/29/2010 4:43 PM
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You are all wrong. May I suggest that you all start to learn how to eat your food using Chopsticks? Anthony can teach you how.
11/29/2010 4:38 PM
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You bet the Greenback has lost it's glitter...and VALUE. There is a new player just around the corner which will surprise you.

 

 

11/29/2010 2:20 PM
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The only salvation, besides Jesus and God, is your PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER locked in your own safe.

You'll thank me later for having done so.

I did back in 2003 and what silver I bought then has more than quintupled.

I plan to buy more to put the belly squeeze on JP M0RGAN.Smile

11/29/2010 2:02 PM
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AMERICA'S REIGN IS OVER PERIOD. We are no longer the superior superpower in the world. We better learn to speak chinese, they already own the US as it is with all the bailout loans and stupidity reigning in Washington
11/29/2010 1:52 PM
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we are no longer the top dog of the world

11/29/2010 12:59 PM
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In todays troubled world and with our financial problems having your currency devalued is good as it levels the playing field in the world market. You are not in Kansas anymore or for that matter the USA.
11/29/2010 12:06 PM
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Moon dies at midnight with no warning hahahahhahahahahhaha​ redcount number 7%

 

 

signed

Joe Bob Insane

11/29/2010 11:39 AM
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HI,

Only a few  countries want the dollar to be replaced , maybe  France and maybe  Russia .Both this countries have demographic issues and cannot replace the US consumer  and so dont matter  . China , India , Brazil together want to retain the dollar pre eminence since they all collectively have huge populations which can only be supported by the buying power of the US since their own populations are far poorer to buy as much as US does .It might be three decades before the dollar can be weakened considerably if things remain the same. well this means not factoring in American creative genius to change the way economics work. 
11/29/2010 11:29 AM
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Anthony you think like me, therefore you must be a genius. We have no economic leadership in America today!!! Bernanke is not the answer, Obama is a lost dog in tall grass and congress is the enemy. To reduce the federal debt, balance the budget, increase exports, and reduce unemployment is going to require major, major major change in America’s way of life. The decisions that must be made in the short run are tough and I don’t believe the American people have the guts, moral structure and the intelligent to accomplices this change. So what does that leave us!!!

11/29/2010 10:10 AM
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To hell with stake and pride.  We need more exports and savings to get us out of this doldrum call unemployment.
11/29/2010 9:18 AM
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The dollar is dead allright !   Look at our debt.   You would have to be insane to be in dollars.  All this day to day stuff is just jibberish.  The big picture says "head for the foxholes" !Boobalots agrees.  The printing press didn't work and there is just nothing left except collapse.Angry
11/29/2010 8:32 AM
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Back to the dire prediction that the U.S. dollar will not remain the go to currency for the world?  Weren't they predicting this a year ago, and that the Euro would be the new go to currency?  Look what has been happening to the Euro.  I guess these news agencies have to make up something to report.
11/29/2010 5:49 AM
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Reserve currencies are selected for their stability. At the time the Breton Woods agreement established the dollar as the reserve currency, the dollar was backed by gold at the rate of $35/oz. That made the dollar stable in value. Now the dollar is not backed by anything. Since the value of all fiat currencies throughout history have eventually gone to zero I don't think the dollar will be any different in that respect.  
11/29/2010 5:43 AM
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Red roseChristmas is coming, how you are going. Gift ready.
so what, move your mouse . " fashionsb "  good..go..
11/29/2010 3:58 AM
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Anthony, you're late to the party as usual and still can't report it right. At least you got 2 stars this time Anthony, and not your usual 1 star. Maybe someday you'll get a 3 star article rating from me? Surprised Doubtful, but good luck!
11/28/2010 9:53 PM
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Anthony is a little late to the party again. Go to usdebtclock.org. The U.S. debt to GDP ratio is better than 94%. No country can sustain that kind of debt for long. The G-20 are looking for a new reserve currency already. when they figure out that the world can get by just fine without a reserve currency, all those dollars they hold will be sent packing back home, and Ben Bernanke will get the inflation he's been looking for and then some.
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