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Presidents are often measured by what they achieve during their first 100 days in office. Schools have parties for students on the 100th day of the school year. When Jerry Yang returned to Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs) last summer, he gave himself 100 days to effect change at the online portal.
At MSN CAPS, we keep an eye on a 100-day mark, too. Some of our best investors -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved top-player ratings after garnering a score of 100 in their first 100 days on CAPS.
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An analysis shows that stocks rated tops by all CAPS investors had the best performance over the first year for which we have data. Might we assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation as well?
One of our highest-rated CAPS investors is "Gtrinvestor," who has a near-perfect 99.97 player rating. A player since December 2006, Gtrinvestor has more than 150 active picks on CAPS out of almost 800 stock picks made. Achieving an accuracy of better than 73%, Gtrinvestor has attracted 182 "groupies" -- CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.
Here are a few recent stock selections Gtrinvestor has made, as well as his ratings on the shares and how they've performed for him since he made his calls.
| Company | Sector | Call | 1-year return | Player's score (as of May 12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Biopharmaceuticals | Outperform | 2.70% | 28 | |
Cigarettes | Outperform | Not applicable | -0.1 | |
Cigarettes | Outperform | 3% | -7 | |
Online information | Outperform | -7.40% | 2.3 | |
Semiconductors | Outperform | -22.10% | 21.3 | |
Home building | Underperform | -23.70% | 5.8 | |
Industrial electrical equipment | Outperform | -34.80% | -15.6 | |
Business software | Outperform | -50.30% | 10.4 | |
Ethanol | Underperform | -65.40% | 3.8 | |
Footwear and accessories | Outperform | -68.90% | -42 | |
Score = distance from S&P 500 since date of call. |
While solar stocks have been riding waves of investor interest, wind energy is catching on with gale force. Private venture capitalists like Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers are looking for so-called "cleantech" investments, and major companies such as BP (BP, news, msgs) and Dominion Resources (D, news, msgs) are joining forces to create major wind-energy projects.
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To build these wind farms, companies need carbon-fiber turbines to withstand the strong gusts buffeting the blades. That's where Zoltek (ZOLT, news, msgs) comes in. It provides the carbon fibers to turbine manufacturers; it also sell its materials to the aerospace industry and others. In fact, 2007 marked the first time that the company got more revenue from the wind-energy market than from the air-brake industry.
Yet it hasn't been a smooth transition. Zoltek received a jolt in the first quarter, when revenues fell 8% as a result of inventory stockpiling by customers. Then the company surprised the market with its recent announcement of accounting errors and the sudden resignation of its chief financal officer. Still, with demand blowing harder these days, it has some long-term potential.
CAPS investor "rasputin12540" sees potential in wind and in automobiles needing to meet new fuel-efficiency standards:
Yet not everyone is sold on it being a breezy time for Zoltek. All-Star player "pytheian" says it carries a rich valuation even with the sell-off, and the accounting issues mean more problems may surface.
Stock Chart (Year)
Zoltek
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor intelligence community have been blown over, one way or another, by Zoltek, but we haven't yet heard from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky said: "You miss 100% of the shots you never take."
At MSN CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. It's free to sign up, so why not take your best shot?
This article was reported and written by Rich Duprey for The Motley Fool. At the time of publication, he owned none of the stocks mentioned.
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