2011: The most new jobs since '95?

A couple of thoughts:

1. Don't most companies (especially in the retail and delivery sectors) normally see an increase in "part-time" hiring in November due to the expected increase in business over the holidays?  So how is this November different than last November?  I noticed it was compared with January (usually about the time all the "seasonal help" that was hired in October or November gets "let go") rather than last November - that would've been a better comparison.  Instead it seems like they're comparing the yearly "high month" with the yearly "low month" for maximum effect.

2.  The more I look at the Occupational Outlook website, the more depressing the situation looks.  Of the "top ten jobs with the most growth" for the next ten years or so, most of them are low paying service jobs like "food service worker" or "cashier" at projected wages of $8 -$10 per hour.  And the overall picture (in condensed, and exaggerated form - peruse the website for more accurate data) looks something like this:

In all the (many) "shrinking" job markets - there are expected to be 10, 000 jobs lost, but in these "increasing" job market fields, they expect to see 8,000 "new" jobs created.  Now it doesn't take long to figure out that you have 10,000 unemployed, plus the newly graduated college kids, plus anybody still unemployed from the last round of figures all vying for the same set of ever decreasing jobs.  The end result is definitely fewer decent paying jobs and more unemployed people.

3. Is it just me, or does it seem like in this day and age, a 2 year degree isn't worth much of anything anymore, and a 4 year degree will likely only get you a "starting position"?  So that at today's wages, you might put yourself thousands dollars in debt to get a degree that will likely get you somewhere between $13 and $20 per hour - how long will it take to pay back your student loans at those kind of wages?

gamerk316

I have seen the interplay from inside the corporate machine. Some of the jobs have definitely been lost to automation and, during this recession, some of it is due to forcing people to work more hours for less. The former is not going away. The latter may loosen up as the economy recovers.

BUT, the longer-term trend is not something that can be denied: globalization has pushed more and more corporate profits overseas and that has resulted in a more concerted effort by executives to move capital and labor overseas so they can be close to their target market. Many higher value jobs are now being performed offshore too.

It is impossible to know for sure how many jobs in America were NOT created due to this dynamic. But a really good guide is to see how quickly total jobs recover after the bottom of recessions. I saw a chart that goes back to the 1960s and what the chart clearly shows is that the since the recessions during the 1970s, the time it takes for jobs to recover to pre-peak levels is taking ever longer (and the bottom of the recession losses is always LOWER in each cycle and the next peak never gets back to where it was). What once took 9 months in 1983 then took 14 months in the early 1990s, 18 months after the tech crash (despite the real estate bubble) and now it looks like it will take years after the Great Recession.

The dynamic is complicated by the fact that the nation is getting older but the reality is that the slow cyclical decline is in indication that the American economy is no longer competitive globally because it fails to make fundamental investments in education, basic R&D, infrastructure and on-the-job training in favor of stupid consumer spending by a small segment of the population. The incentive in the corporate model is to cut costs even if that causes long-term problems for the nation overall. This is what is known in economics as local optimization that fails to produce true optimization - basically the costs are externalized. This externalization shows up as our national debt and trade deficit - which not coincidentally has grown along with the effects of each recession.

Our current political corruption makes it ever harder for the needs of most Americans to be heard. The "debate" on tax policy is the most recent evidence of this core issue. In order for most Americans to get a break on taxes on earned income, we have to give tax breaks on unearned income to people who use the money to gamble, spend indiscriminately or invest overseas to seed our own competition. There is an ever wider divide between the purpose, beliefs and incentives of the leadership (political or economic) and everyone else.

This situation is not going to change with small shifts in tax rates, interest rates or paying down consumer debt. The culture and the mindset of the nation has to change and that is very difficult to accomplish (especially if double-speak propaganda and advertising is everywhere in the corporate-owned media). An entire generation of Americans have been brainwashed to think a certain way and it will be hard to get rid of that unless a new generation comes along (some people are so wedded to their ideology that they get upset at the mere mention of an opposing thought - we saw this in spades during the midterm elections).

Gen X,Y: this is your only chance to change the dynamic that your parents created. It is clear what has happened over the past 30 years has shifted more wealth in America than it has created.

The title of this article should be: 2011: The Least New Jobs Since 1935?

Maybe construction jobs will save us - we could keep building more houses that people can't afford.

The period from late November (Thanksgiving) through New Years have always been used by Manufacturers for Maintenance on equipment.   Most make everyone take vacations or there may be layoffs during that period.   After New Years the workforce normally increases as long as there is room in the warehouse and orders on hand.

******

 (I lived in a town which was called a Company Town having a lumber and veneer mill.  There was a store, gas station, bank, clubhouse, bar and the homes that were rented out to the workers.  Even the money {Brass Coins}was printed by the company up to the 1950s.)  So you know who ended up with all the money.

People are talking about Service vs. Manufacturing.  There is only so much money in the world unless countries print more which reduces the value. 

Normally Manufacturing will bring into an area new money (from outside sources) through raw material purchases to parts manufacturers, to final Manufacturing processes, to Distributors and eventually to consumers.   This money is earned by consumers in a variety of ways.  This is all on a large scale and I could considered it, in essence, Large Scale Service Economy.

I feel a small strictly Service economy is a town or small area having a repair shop, a gas station or some other service that doesn't bring in new money or has a limited influx of new money to an area's economy.  It just shuffles money from one person to the next, but it eventually ends up in the hands of a local banker from someone that owes them.  The area gets stagnant.   Much like the Company town.

Even a McDonalds or a Parts store will take money from that area and put it into someone else's pocket somewhere outside the local area. 

Because we are now in a Global economy which will forever be the case, this money could possibly go overseas and the money is put into the Manufacturing scenario above but on a world scale.  The only way to increase growth is to have more people desire more goods.

This is the Catch-22.  The more people using goods, the more social problems, the more use of raw materials, the more waste generated and more pollution.   And growth in someone else's back yard (China, India, Brazil)

 So you can see where this is leading us. 

Man, I read the comments first, then read the article. My take is Corporations are sitting on a Pile of Money, but no hiring or very little hiring for whatever reason(s): Healthcare, Big Profits, Attrition, Fear, Taxes, Politics, who knows. If the economy were to slide into a double dip recession or Depression, Corporations have a huge Pile of money on the sidelines so the good news is they should not need to be bailed out. Bad news is Federal Government is running high Debts along with States and Municipalities so that could hamper growth. The Taxpayer "could" be bailing out States in the future. Fear abroad in the European Union does not help the situation at all.

If there is growth, then where is it? I suppose Congress is going or has extended Jobless Benefits at the same time as Extending the Bush Tax Cuts for the very wealthy, but does that mean the Wealthy will reinvest in the USA? There are no mandates with the Tax Cuts so the Wealthy will do as they will, which that is fine but would it not be nice to encourage hiring even if part-time? Age discrimination does apply in our society because there are many 50+ something people out of work who are seasoned professionals unable to acquire work. There are also many young, College Degreed people unable to find work.(I am not going to argue the point over them not taking work over Salary, in their field, etc. but these kids are not doing too well finding employment.)

Remember, the Taxpayer just bailed out GM (streamlined), AIG, a plethora of banks, and lending standards are very stringent at this time. I do not know of any magic wand to wave to make it all better. Housing has lost several Trillion dollars overall since the past couple of years. Commercial Properties are sitting vacant/unleased. Couple this with past outsourcing of jobs, the use of Illegal Immigration for low cost Labor or the continued rising of Illegal Immigration with the strain on State and Federal budgets although the migration of Illegal Immigration thru the South Western States may have waned as of late. Let us not forget about Derivatives on Wall Street. Also, I believe the COLA portion of SS is not going to be given for 2011.

The one thing that I see happening is more Corporations gobbling up competition or becoming bigger. They have the money to do it, the price is right, and they are doing it. When acquistions occur, there will be layoffs, terminations, etc. Payrolls have fallen in an attempt to push maximum efficiency out of a 7 day work week/24 hours= 168 hours of maximum productivity on all fronts.

This is the Global Economy....the Next Frontier. I am still trying to grasp it as I don't have the cushion job on Goldman Sachs.  The Net Result will be an ever widening gap between the Haves and the Have Nots...make no mistake about that!