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Stocks rally on jobless-claims report

Initial unemployment claims hit their lowest level since January. Retailers post better-than-expected same-store sales. Cisco CEO sees recovery building.

Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Thursday, November 5, 2009 8:59 AM

Elizabeth Strott

Updated at 1:30 p.m. ET

 

Stocks were surging today as bulls took this morning's economic data as another sign of a recovery.

 

At 1:30 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) had gained 168 points to 9,970. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) had added 43 points to 2,099, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was up 16 points to 1,063.

 

The gains came after the Labor Department this morning said initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 last week -- the lowest level since January -- and a report that showed that U.S. productivity rose at the fastest pace in six years in the third quarter.  

 

Crude oil fell 49 cents to $79.91 a barrel this afternoon. Gold was trading at $1,089 an ounce after hitting a record high of $1,097.72 on Wednesday.

 

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their key lending rates on hold this morning. The Federal Reserve did the same on Wednesday.

 

Continuing claims drop

Initial jobless claims have been above 500,000 for 51 weeks in a row, but claims have declined for the past nine weeks. Economists had expected initial claims to have fallen to 520,000 from 532,000, revised from 530,000, in the previous week.

 

Continuing claims fell by 68,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.75 million in the week ending Oct. 24, the lowest since March. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate approved a bill to extend jobless benefits for thousands of unemployed workers.

 

"This report suggests that the peak for the unemployment rate may be closer than commonly thought," John Lonski, a chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, told CNNMoney.com. "Jobs are still disappearing, but the contraction of payrolls continues to narrow."

 

Productivity jumps as unit labor costs fall

U.S. companies managed to squeeze more output from their employees, according to the Labor Department's productivity report. Productivity surged at a 9.5% annual rate in the third quarter.

 

The productivity report also showed that unit labor costs, a key measure of inflation, dropped at a 5.2% annual rate in the quarter.


Productivity is output divided by hours worked. Output rose 4% annualized, while hours worked plunged 5%. Real hourly compensation increased at a 0.2% annual rate.

 

"Since corporate profits are directly related to productivity growth and inversely related to unit cost growth, this data is good news for earnings," MKM Chief Economist Michael Darda wrote in a note to clients.

 

"However, the recent productivity gains are not sustainable. At some point, hours worked and payrolls will have to rise in order to meet stepped-up production schedules. As this occurs, income growth should recover, allowing households to spend more even if they are setting aside a larger fraction of their income in savings," Darda said.

 

Consumers did some shopping in October

A cool October helped retailers, as many posted better-than-expected sales at stores open at least one year.

 

Costco (COST) posted a 5% gain in sales, better than the 4.7% increase analysts had expected. TJX Companies (TJX) saw sales rise 10%, and Gap's (GPS) sales were up 4%, topping the estimate of a 1.6% increase.

 

Overall same-store sales should rise 2% in October, according to Retail Metricks, which would be the largest gain since June 2008.

 

Cisco beats the Street

Cisco Systems (CSCO) posted a fiscal-first-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, or 30 cents a share, down from $2.2 billion, or 37 cents a share, last year. Adjusted earnings were 36 cents per share, topping analysts' expectations of 31 cents.

 

Revenue fell to $9 billion from $10.3 billion, but that also beat expectations of $8.75 billion.

 

"The quarter was very strong," CEO John Chambers said during a call with analysts. "The recovery is gaining momentum."

 

Shares of the tech bellwether rose 59 cents, or 2.5%, to $23.88.

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Thursday, November 05, 2009 8:34:08 PM
MM2 -- good luck retiring if you have all your money stuffed in your mattress...   I for one am glad to have enjoyed the run up since March...    I keep hearing all the whining about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.... it's more like the smart are getting richer and the stupid are cowering in fear in their basements....
#2
Thursday, November 05, 2009 8:01:39 PM

I don't know...the economy sucks and is not coming back anytime soon....but I sleep good at night. All snug and comfy knowing I'm the King of Silver.

Soon I'll be employing people to work on my ponderosa for a silver dollar a week. You got to take care of yourself and understand the dollar index....nobody is going to do your homework but you.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 5:10:38 PM
The "market" has nothing to do with the economy.  I am glad I pulled all my "investment" out of the "market" and I will never ever buy stocks or funds again.  Really, 10000 people hold shares of one company while 2 of them trade 1 share through the roof doesn't mean the rest 9998 get $0.001, although on paper they all made a fortune.
The market is nothing but a casino and lottery.  I will just hold what I get and don't want to get rich by gambling or buying lottery.  Period.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 4:54:10 PM

A jobless recovery is an oxymoron. You cant recover without jobs or production. Most of the profits posted this quarter are from cutting jobs, cutting production, and liquidation. Its not sustainable. The reality of the severity of the situiation will make itself known very soon. Government and wall street cant keep up this charade much longer.

 

By the way the dow hitting 10,000 means nothing, its only nomial.  The dow hit 10,000 in 2001 but the dollar was worth almost 3 times more in terms of gold than it is now. Dont think of stock prices in terms of dollars, think of them in terms of purchasing power, and you will see that the dow is really closer to 3 or 4000 in terms of real value. As long as the market keeps getting flooded with printed money then stock prices will continue to rise nominally but will continue to fall in real value.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 4:04:25 PM

mastermindofamerica,

 

Perhaps you should have voted for Palin.  Because, you don't have your facts strait.  Let me explain why everone is talking about unemployment running out.

 

First, when the standard 26 week unemployment runs out, and you apply for the federal extention, you are no longer counted as being unemployed, by the government unemployment rate statistic. 

 

So lets say you had 50 people that were unemployed out of 100.  So you would have a 50% unemployment rate.  Well lets say that 25 more people joined the unemployed out of that 100.  So now you have 75 unemployed people, and an unemployment rate of 75%.  But lets say those 50 people ran out of unemployment and applied for the federal extention.  So now we are only counting 50 out of 100 of those people.  Well now we add the 25 people that were just unemployed.  So now we have 50 total people were looking at because, the way we do our statistics, those 50 people that just ran out of unemployment, don't matter.

 

So now we have 50 people and 25 of them are unemployed.  Realistically, we have an unemployment rate of 75%, but the way we decide to do statistics we only have an unemployment rate of 50%, since we no longer count the half of the people that ran out of unemployment.

 

And even though the real unemployment rate out of the 100 people is 75%.  We report the rate as having not changed, and still at 50%.  See how easy it could be to make the rate go down, when you do statistics this way?

 

Perhaps, if you vote for Palin next time, she could help you with this problem.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 4:02:57 PM

Tell me again why we should give someone 6500 to buy a home?  Why don't we give everyone that is current on the mortgage and owns a home the 6500?   These government incentives cost money.  They are nothing more than a DEFERRED TAX INCREASE...  It is really stupid to continue giving incentives to prop up the real estate bubble...   Interest tax deductions, first 500,000 in real estate profits tax free, 8,000 tax credits, deductions for real estate taxes, low interest loans (FHA, etc).

 

Imagine the stock market...zero money down, 1st 500K in profits tax free, 8,000 first time stock buyers tax credit...The market would look like Vegas...or worse the real estate market.  Let prices fall...  

 

Housing, like autos, grow old and should depreciate.  This idea that housing should grow in value is utter nonsense. 

 

End the government subsidies...

Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:33:40 PM

America will not be a super power in the future.  The signs are clearly visible.  America is showing signs of cracks for long time.  Cracks are getting bigger with time.  China will be next super power.

Read my older postings and get the picture.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:22:24 PM

To: PSAztec

 

How many consumers buy tanks, rockets, ships and raw steel?  No matter how one dices, slices and twists the numbers, we still have over 1/2 a million people a month losing their jobs.  Hardly an atmosphere of "recovery".  There are so many government incentives to make the numbers look good.  Cash for Clunkers,  home tax rebates etc etc etc.  These are hardly incentives to an economy on the mend!  For the most part, the middle class is on government life support and a new form of welfare.  How sweet it is huh? 

Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:10:41 PM
This is due only to holiday help and people finding part time jobs instead of full time jobs. It happens this time every year. The economy is still bad with U.E. being more like 16%+  and not 9.5% like the Gov. says it is. And for the U.S. being #1 in manufacturing, that is fading. Our economy is based off 70% consumer spending. Even people in Congress admit that is not healthy. We are losing manufacturing jobs at a very fast pace. Even the CEO of GE said that we need to bring back jobs here or we are in trouble. It will all take care of itself, but the outcome will not be pretty.  Even Henry Ford realized that if people didn't work, they can't buy his cars. So, he employed them! The new, world economy theory is geared for the rich (Gov. included), but they, too, will soon realize that when people are broke, nothing happens. Money still has to pass through hands for the rich to get richer. I am 40, a college grad (really means nothing now) and recently unemployed. I predict that in my lifetime, I will see the US not be the powerhouse it once was and another country will take our place. It's already happening.
Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:06:27 PM
Ok let me explain for the masses how they figure out new claims when you show up to claim unemployment they take down your social security number. That is how they track this every time a new number comes in it tells them how many NEW I repeat NEW claims their are. Unless people we going in with fake numbers then it does not matter how many times they go in or if their benefits run out they still are only a new claim once.
Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:04:02 PM
well, as I said to my class this morning, the market is bad, jobs are hard to come by, and I am glad i am not 23 starting out.  So I think the economy is pretty bad... and some one is not telling the truth..
Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:03:06 PM

IN RESPONSE TO SPEAK TRUTHFULLY'S COMMENTS.

 

many posting were getting the number on initial jobless claims mixed up with the total unemployment number.  The total unemployment number is falling due to peoples benefits running out and falling off the record, but in part they are still correct that the number of initial jobless claims is misleading.  It doesn't take into account that MANY corporations, large-medium-small businesses, and municipalities are drastically cutting back current employee hours.  In some cases to as low as 32 hours a week as well as trimming the benefits they were once getting to nothing at all or the absolute minimums.  As well as the hours and benefits reduction, is to tell all the employees that many will get laid off unless some start taking "furloughs" in order to reduce costs and save their fellow employees job.  FYI "furlough" means don't come into work this week and take no pay.  In a sense temporarily and voluntarily (<------ in some cases) unemploy yourself for a week or two at a time and or a day or two a week or month.  So ........ yes .......... they aren't "unemployed". As well those that still have jobs are to take on their own responsibilities as well as the work of those that have been let go.  So in essence they are working 1.5 jobs for the same or less pay and trying to do it in fewer hours. The reason that this is now occurring is that business, corporate, and municipalities have in the last couple quarters made drastic cost cuts and drawn down inventories, but still face tremendous shortfalls unless they are being propped up by the federal gov't ( i.e. banking, insurance companies (a.i.g.) wall street, housing market, car makers, etc ....... ).  So ....... yes ........... speak truthfully you are technically correct in your assessment of initial jobless claims, but the number is no where near the reality of what is going on in our country, states, and our communities.  I could go on and on about other numbers that wall street and banking analysts say are pointing to a "V" shaped recovery or whatever the saying is this month, but the story is the same.  The numbers do not reflect the current situation accurately.  I know that many out there with many more degrees than I will debate these points to the contrary, citing a positive GDP, ISM+ number, productivity +, etc ...... but there are similar problems with those index as well. I think that people are trying to speak their minds and or feelings about these issues and may reference a wrong number or mis quote a number in the wrong way. But the underlying causes for those feelings remain the same and are undeniable.

Thursday, November 05, 2009 2:56:55 PM
Did every ones IQ just drop a hundred points or something jobless claim drops have nothing to do with benefits running out they are counted separately. I am guessing most of the people that are on here crying that the benefits are running out are the same ones that want me to vote for that other master mind Palin keep up the good work O you masses of misinformation.  
Thursday, November 05, 2009 2:56:47 PM
What the clown on Wall Street can't push it over 10,000 today.
Thursday, November 05, 2009 2:39:27 PM

Beautifully written, Mdavenpo

Bet Incompetent1 has to stay in when it rains otherwise he'd drown being so stuck up thinking his sh#t doesn't stink.  Maybe he should go thank his mommie and daddie for putting him through school and then kick their butts for bringing up a spoiled brat who thinks he's better than everyone else.

 

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