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Buffett's gloomy economic predictions
The Oracle of Omaha says the worst is yet to come.
Warren Buffett doesn't see the "green shoots" Ben Bernanke and other bullish investors have spoken of in recent months. In fact, the billionaire investor believes the economic picture will grow darker before things improve.
"Everything I see about the economy is that we have had no bounce," Buffett told CNBC anchor Becky Quick in a televised interview Wednesday. "There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still under way, and it looks to me that it will be under way for quite awhile. In the annual report, I said that the economy would be in shambles this year and probably well beyond, and I think that is true."
Unemployment, said Buffett, will continue to drag the economy down. He told Bloomberg news that unemployment is "very likely to go above 10%." About 9.4% of the population -- about 14.5 million people -- was unemployed in May, the last month for which statistics are available. High unemployment will continue to depress consumer demand for everything from energy to cars and homes, Buffett said.
Wednesday's news about new-home sales supported Buffett's argument. New-home sales fell 0.6% in May, dashing the hopes of many bullish investors who believed the economy and credit markets had turned around enough to fuel big ticket purchases.
Buffett has had bad luck, too
Buffett himself has not been unscathed by the economic downturn. His company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), reported its first loss this year since 2001.
Before things get better for investors, Buffett believes the government will need to continue to take steps to reduce unemployment.
"It looks like we're going to need more medicine, not less," he said in an interview with Bloomberg News, adding that the country may need a second stimulus package to pull out of the current spiral. "The recovery really hasn't gotten going."
Buffett cautioned that some of the "medicine," though crucial, may have adverse side effects down the road. Inflation, he believes, could become a big problem. But, it will also likely push investors to buy stocks since rising prices would erode the value of cash.
"We have done things that raise the probability of high rates of inflation at some point," he told CNBC.
The New King James Version, (Nashville, TN: Thomas Nelson Publishers) 1998, c1982.
Right now, we sure could use a healing in our land!
Seems to me Buffetts recent investments are on his mind more than the green shoots. He sure made some bad moves over the last 1 1/2 years. The facts are we have exited the plunge phase, and entered the revival phase of the biz. cycle.
On a weekly percentage basis, the better stocks in the sectors that outperform in Revival 1 are doing better than the the equities that outperform the market in the Plunge phase. Pretty fundamental that the money flow is entering this area.
We are on our way to better days and months, dont listen to the laggards. Chips, autos, trucks and parts, diversified mfg., banks, chemicals, rails, and oil outperform in this phase. Good luck, God Bless, and invest wisely.
My friend, the Bible's teachings parallel your concerns and suggestions about America's current economic situation. If a more than likely God had been respected and His precepts followed, then all of this current economic chaos would have been averted. There's certainly no need in praying to God expecting a" divine bail-out" as such, all the while refusing to change one's distorted mind-set only to continue following financially destructive behaviors.
Exodus 20:17 expressly tells us not to covet. Proverbs 23:4-5 teaches us that there's more to life than the pursuit of material things. Matthew 7:7-8 shows us that there is more to prayer than merely asking for something; God also expects the one doing the asking to additionally "seek and knock", and then the "door will be opened". These are only a few of the many passages from the Bible that concur with your concerns and suggestions. It is amazing how the Bible, although relegated to virtual obsolesce by popular society, is nonetheless so very poignant and relevant to our lives today.
Perhaps if people quit praying to a more likely than not non existent god to fix things and started trying to work things out themselves things would get better.
Don't pray for god to make the economy better and your bank account bigger. Go out and start a business and quit depending on big Corporate America for an income. More importantly, don't rely on them for your retirement.
While you are at it, get rid of your credit cards, your big gas guzzling car, that over priced house you live in and quit believing all the ads on TV that tell you to go out and buy this or that so you can keep up with the Jones's.
If you quit wasting your money on the crap they try and sell us all and refuse to buy over priced items then they (Corporate America) will be forced to turn out quality products at reasonable prices if they want to stay in business.
Also, boycott the products and services of any company that sends American jobs overseas. The immigrants from Mexico (legal or not) are not taking any jobs a stuck up holier than thou 'I'm a freakin' American so I'm entitled' legal US citizen wants anyway. Corporate America does more harm to the average American worker's chance at gainful employment than an *army* of illegal immigrants *ever* could. When you want a job picking fruit, moping up restrooms or digging ditches and can't get one because an illegal immigrant got it first *then* perhaps I'll listen to you whine.
Quit using illegal immigration as a shallow disguise for your obvious racist tendencies and get a clue and a life.
You like everyone want to make the argument Dem or GOP,I HATE BOTH DEM & GOP.Bushwacker & Dumbama are taking us to the same destination.Bush alittle slow O a little faster.Wake up you scumbums.We are doomed if you think Dem or GOP are the answer.You are the answer if you are an American not a politcal party poop!
BUFFETT, said...he is CONFIDENT...not "Gloomy" about the medium term economy...and,
1) Ben Bernanke "should be" reappointed for a second term,
" I don't see how you could do better ."
2) " The FED came through for us ", after the financial meltdown,
3) Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geirthner, and Larry Summers
are doing a capable job to assist the economy recover.
4) Unemployment "will LAG the TURNUP of the economy" !!!
Hello... out of context reporting, like:
"Unemployment, said Buffett, will continue to drag the economy down."
5) Excesses in institutional and private debt needs attention.
6) The stock market is a positive indicator for the economy.
The televised interview is the best place to get the balance judgement made by Buffett...and avoid erroneous conclusions that he did not say.
The Perterson/Holahan story is a negative gloom spin, with missing endorsements/confidence remarks made by Buffett.
Downmarket fear reporting, might increase short term ratings
but doesn't do justice to "informing" the public on how to evaluate the positive achievements as they unfold, as against unreasonable expectations in difficult economic times, not seen since WW11.
I AM VERY DISAPPOINTED IN MR. BUFFET. We just don't need any more statements about the "sky is falling". We can all see how we are affected now by the doomsayers, three years ago.
When an old man with PLENTY of money wants to make the employers feel "why bother", we lose more companies and we lose more employed.
Mr. Buffet is at the end of his term on earth. He could do a lot for mankind by spreading his wealth.
He coud set up a fund for students over 22 years of age, with a large debt due to college. He could set up a fund for the aged, to be able to live a secure and happy life, till they pass. He could set up a fund for single paretns.
Instead of preaching his "words of doom", Mr. Buffet could be investing in small business that want to fulfill that idea of ownership.
Warren:
I admired you, you are very conservative and that's what make you special. This down turn is not going to end soon, it's just the begining. Investors and oil companies need to be awared to stop making the news about economic turn around already. It might have a short effect to people's mind, but for a long turn it is not logical. The United States has alwasy been good image to attract rich inverstors globally, it not a good time to mess it up again. U.S may never come out of recession, but China may lead the global because of their saving rate and amount of cash sitting.
The mess we are in is primarily a matter of having no common sense. During the Bush years the representatives we elected cut taxes and went on a tremendous spending spree which included fighting two wars and enacting a large new entitlement program without paying for it, i.e., prescription drug benefits. Our banking industry made loans that couldn't possibly be repaid and Wall Street packaged these bad loans and sold them to unwary investors with insurance coverage from AIG. This was all done under the watchful eye of government regulatory agencies and congressional committees with oversight responsibilities. Regular Americans who were taken in by smooth sales pitches agreed to loans they couldn't possibly repay and thought nothing of refinancing their homes to obtain additional cash. When the house of cards collapsed a lot of people got hurt badly. Now, in the midst of a very deep recession and staggering deficits, Congress is seriously considering enacting universal health care coverage which is likely to cost at least two trillion dollars over the first five years it is implemented. Where is the money going to come from? How are we going to also save Social Security and Medicare from insolvency? Given the financial situation we are facing, I think that Mr. Buffett is probably being optimistic since we obviously have no common sense.
StockScouter data provided by Gradient Analytics, Inc.
Quotes supplied by Interactive Data.
MSN Money's editorial goal is to provide a forum for personal finance and investment ideas. Our articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual circumstances.
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