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Market Dispatches

Market Dispatches8/11/2008 9:00 PM ET

Stocks move higher as crude falls again

But gains are trimmed when oil rebounds from a low of $112.72. Amazon.com and Apple push higher. Boeing drops on reports it may not bid on the Air Force's new tanker. Despite lower interest rates, banks are stingier about lending.

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

The dollar moved higher and crude oil briefly dropped below $113, helping stocks rally again.

But the rally's strength eased as crude climbed back to $114.45 a barrel at the close. That was still down 75 cents a barrel, or 0.7%, from Friday. That's down nearly 22 from its intraday high of $147.22 on July 11. A drop of 20% from a high is the popular definition of a bear market.

At the same time, there were more reports that, despite repeated Federal Reserve rate cuts since September, banks are actually making loans harder to get.

The Dow Jones industrials finished up 48 points, or 0.4%, to 11,782; it had been up as many as 133 points before crude oil rebounded. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 9 points, or 0.7%, to 1,305, the first close above 1,300 for the index since June 25. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 26 points, or 1.1%, to 2,440.

Strength in technology stocks, especially Amazon.com (AMZN, news, msgs) and Apple (AAPL, news, msgs), and a rebound in many financial stocks also helped the market. The two stocks combined added more than half of the 15-point gain for the Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X) today. The index was up 15 points, or 0.8%, to 1,941.

The Dow is up 8.8% from its intraday low on July 15. The S&P 500 is up 8.7% in the same time frame, and the Nasdaq is up 12.6%.

The dollar's gain today seemed to be related to increasing evidence that the global economy is slowing under the weight of higher oil prices. It may also be that some investors find the dollar a safe place to park money in the wake of the Russia-Georgia conflict.

The dollar was up 0.3% today against the euro, 0.2% against the British pound and 0.2% against the Japanese yen. The dollar is up 4.4% against the pound and 5.7% against the euro this month.

Oil's drop surprised many analysts who believe that the Russia's incursion into Georgia has much to do with gaining control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. That stretch of pipe brings 1 million barrels of crude oil a day from the Caspian Sea to a terminal on the Mediterranean Sea in Turkey. Georgia's president said this afternoon that the Russians had effectively cut his country in half.

But slowing global demand for oil appears to be trumping the Georgian situation. "It's hard to imagine that the market will shrug off the potential loss of 1 million barrels a day of pretty good quality crude, but that appears to be the case," Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass., told Bloomberg News today.

The greenback's rise also slammed gold, silver and copper prices. Gold was off 4.2% to $828.30 an ounce in New York. Gold is down 10% this month.

Oil's fall drops energy shares

As oil fell, so, too, did many energy stocks. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index ($OSX.X) was down 0.6% to 281. ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs) was off 0.8% to $77.72. Halliburton (HAL, news, msgs) was down slightly to $43.50.

But the oil rebound from its bottom abruptly ended a rally in transportation stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT), up as much 1.5% at 12:30 p.m. ET, finished down 54 points, or 1%, to 5,163. The Amex Airlines Index ($XAL.X), which had been up nearly 9%, saw that gain cut back to just 3.9%. American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (AMR, news, msgs) was up 9% to $12.27.

Stock Charts (Year)

General Motors
Graphical chart for GM
Potash of Saskatchewan
Graphical chart for POT
Boeing (BA, news, msgs), down 1.8% to $66.62, and IBM Corp. (IBM, news, msgs), down 1.7% to $126.60, were the biggest factors keeping the Dow in check.

Boeing fell on a report in Aviation Week that the aerospace giant is "strongly considering" not bidding on the controversial $35 billion contract from the U.S. Air Force, saying that the new terms of the contract favor Northrop Grumman (NOC, news, msgs) and its partner, EADS, the maker of the Airbus family of jetliners.

The report said it is unclear what action the government would take should Boeing bow out of the competition. Northrop Grumman was up 0.4% to $69.96.

Retail stocks were strong today as crude moved lower. Wal-Mart (WMT, news, msgs), which reports second-quarter earnings on Thursday, was up 1.2% to $58.56. Kohl's (KSS, news, msgs) was up 8.8% to $51.

General Motors (GM, news, msgs) was the top performer among the 30 Dow stocks, jumping 7.3% to $10.76.

Financial stocks were mostly higher, although Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs), the nation's largest providers of mortgage capital, moved lower again. Freddie Mac finished down 5.1% to $5.60; Fannie Mae was off 7.2% to $8.40.

American Express (AXP, news, msgs) added 3.6% to $39.17; Citigroup (C, news, msgs) added 2.2% to $19.82. But Lehman Bros. (LEH, news, msgs) was off 1% to $18.44.

Steel, metals and agriculture stocks were losers as commodity prices continued to move lower. Fertilizer maker Mosaic (MOS, news, msgs) tumbled 7.7% to $96.35. Potash of Saskatchewan (POT, news, msgs), which fell 6.2% to $160.91, has fallen 33% since mid-June.

U.S. Steel (X, news, msgs) dropped 6.5% to $128.46; aluminum giant Alcoa (AA, news, msgs) fell 1.7% to $31.23.

Energy prices -- New York close
 Mon.Fri.Chg.Month chg.YTD chg.
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel)$114.45$115.20-$0.75-7.76%19.24%
Heating oil (per gallon)$3.1195$3.1280-$0.0085-9.28%17.74%
Natural gas (per million BTU)$8.3490$8.2480$0.1010-8.44%11.57%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon)$2.8666$2.8874-$0.0208-5.95%15.09%

Amazon's electronic reader is a winner

Amazon shares pushed 9.4% higher to $88.09 after analysts at Citigroup said Amazon's Kindle electronic reader appears to be selling much better than expected and could double a previous estimate for units sold this year.

Citigroup said the Kindle could be one of the top gadget gifts during the upcoming holiday season, along with Apple Inc's newest iPhone.

Stock Charts (Year)

Amazon.com
Graphical chart for AMZN
Apple
Graphical chart for AAPL
Citigroup estimates Amazon will sell up to 380,000 Kindles in 2008, up from a previous forecast of 190,000. It expects Kindle-related revenue of $1 billion by 2010, compared with a previous forecast of $400 million to $750 million.

Amazon.com's gain was tops among S&P 500 stocks and third-best among Nasdaq-100 stocks.

Amazon.com added 2.4 points to the index; Apple added 5.7 points.

60 million iPhone programs downloaded

Apple shares jumped 2.4% to $173.56 on a report that users have downloaded more than 60 million programs for the iPhone, in the month since the technology company opened the App Store, an online software clearinghouse.

CEO Steve Jobs told The Wall Street Journal that Apple sold an average of $1 million a day in applications for a total of about $30 million in sales over the month.If sales stay at the current pace, Apple stands to earn at least $360 million a year in new revenue from the App Store, Jobs said. "'This thing's going to crest a half a billion, soon," Jobs told The Journal, adding that it may be a "$1 billion marketplace at some point in time."

Apple is keeping only 30% of the proceeds from application sales while the programs' creators keep 70%. However, Jobs believes that applications will help sell more iPhones and wireless-enabled iPod touch devices by enhancing the appeal of the products.

Fed says banks are tightening credit

The Federal Reserve said more banks made it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow money as defaults and delinquencies on home loans soared.

Most "domestic institutions reported having tightened their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months," the Fed said today in its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey.

The Fed, concerned that $494 billion in losses among financial institutions is damping credit, cut the benchmark interest rate at a record pace between September and April. The central bank also began accepting mortgage bonds as collateral and began lending to securities firms. The survey, conducted last month, covers 52 domestic banks and 21 foreign institutions.

"When the Fed started to cut rates, mortgage rates and other rates were actually lower than they are today," former San Francisco Fed Bank President Robert Parry told Bloomberg News before the report. "To say that things are easier in many areas of credit would be mistaken."

Barry Ritholtz, writing on his blog "The Big Picture," noted two points from the survey:

  • Loan officers see credit tightening on all loan categories for the rest of 2008, with continued tightness in 2009.

  • Loan demand weakened over the last three months.

Short hits from the markets -- 4 p.m.
 Mon.Fri.Chg.Month chg.YTD chg.
Treasurys
13-week Treasury bill1.770%1.665%0.1058.26%-43.63%
5-year Treasury note yield3.268%3.217%0.0510.06%-5.41%
10-year Treasury note yield4.002%3.950%0.0520.58%-0.82%
30-year Treasury bond yield4.611%4.555%0.0560.17%3.41%
Currencies
U.S. Dollar Index76.31576.0100.3053.94%-0.50%
British pound in dollars$1.9106$1.9113-0.0007-3.65%-3.95%
Dollar in British pounds £0.5234£0.52320.00023.79%4.12%
Euro in dollars$1.4903$1.4908-0.0004-4.47%1.97%
Dollar in euros€ 0.6710€ 0.67080.00024.68%-1.93%
Dollar in yen 110.11110.090.022.07%-1.56%
Canadian dollar in U.S. dollars$0.936$0.936$0.0000-4.28%-5.78%
U.S. dollar in Canadian dollars$1.069$1.069$0.00004.48%6.07%
Commodities
Gold$828.30$864.80-$36.50-10.23%-1.16%
Copper$3.2915$3.3330-$0.04-10.11%8.24%
Silver$14.6200$15.3300-$0.71-17.82%-2.01%
Corn$4.9725$4.9725-$0.01-15.36%9.17%
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel)$114.45$115.20-$0.75-7.76%19.24%

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Quotes supplied by Interactive Data.
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