Dow+32.73up+0.29%
11,220.96
Nasdaq-3.16down-0.14%
2,255.88
S&P+5.48up+0.44%
1,242.31
Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

Market Dispatches3/20/2008 10:00 PM ET

Dow up 3.4% for week; is the worst over?

A rally erupts on Wall Street as some analysts say the worst of the credit crisis may be over. Citigroup jumps 11% and leads financial stocks. GE gets an upgrade, but FedEx thinks the outlook is still weak. Markets will close for Good Friday.

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

The stock market finished a holiday-shortened week with a big rally, recovering most of Wednesday's loss and generating talk that the worst of the 2008 sell-off was over.

Led by financial stocks and helped by falling commodity prices, the Dow Jones industrials finished today with a gain of nearly 262 points, or 2.2%, to 12,361. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 31 points, or 2.4%, to 1,330, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 48 points, or 2.2%, to 2,258.

Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

The Dow finished the week with a gain of 3.4%; the blue-chip index, however, is down 6.8% on the year. The S&P 500 was up 2.8% but is down 9.5% for the year. The Nasdaq was up 2.9% on the week but is down 15% for the year.

The three major indexes had their best weekly percentage gains since the week of Jan. 28 when the Dow was up 4.4%, the S&P up 4.9% and the Nasdaq up 3.8%.

The market was pushed higher early on today by an upgrade for Dow component General Electric (GE, news, msgs), which jumped 5.5% to $37.56.

But financial stocks were the ultimate engine for the market after analyst Richard Bove of Punk, Ziegel & Co. said the financial crisis that has roiled markets for months is now over.

Bove cited interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and additional moves to add cash to the financial system so banks and brokerages can figure out how to handle bad assets.

Investors, he added in a client note, should take advantage of the "once-in-a-generation opportunity" and buy financials. And buy they did.

The Standard & Poor's Banking Index ($BIX.X) was up 7% to 265. Citigroup (C, news, msgs) was the top performer among the 30 Dow stocks with a 10.2% gain to $22.50. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), which won a deal to buy crippled investment bank Bear Stearns (BSC, news, msgs), was up 8.2% to $45.97.

Bear Stearns itself was up 11.8% to $5.96 as disgruntled investors search for ways to get more money from JPMorgan.

The markets for the week
Close for weekWk. ago close% chg.YTD. chg.
Dow Jones industrials12,361.3211,951.093.43%-6.81%
S&P 500 1,329.511,288.143.21%-9.46%
Nasdaq Composite2,258.112,212.492.06%-14.86%
Russell 2000681.42662.902.79%-11.05%
Crude oil per barrel$97.91$110.21-7.59%6.11%
10-yr. Treasury yield3.33%3.42%-2.72%-17.52%
Gold per troy ounce$920.00$999.50-7.95%9.79%

The big question: Is the worst over?

A number of analysts believe that the worst of the market slump since the summer of 2007 is over. "This is the time to go back into the equity markets, particularly the U.S. market," Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist of TCW Group, told Bloomberg News today. "The U.S. equity market will outperform the rest of the world."

The market's gains on Tuesday and again today were a bit vote of confidence in the Federal Reserve's moves to cut interest rates, make credit available to investment banks and the swift action to sell investment bank Bear Stearns (BSC, news, msgs)before it could plunge into bankruptcy and disrupt credit markets around the world.

At the same time, the market bent severely on Monday when the S&P 500 Index fell under 1,270, its intraday low on Jan. 23. Had the index closed under 1,270, it might have been weaker for the rest of the week. But the index rebounded to a Monday close of 1,276, which offered investors confidence that buyers would step in.

But one day doesn't make a turnaround. The Dow is still down 12.7% from its peak in October. The S&P 500 is down 15% from its October peak, and the Nasdaq is off 21% from its Oct. 31 high.

And the market still must contend with a weak economy. Parcel-package company FedEx (FDX, news, msgs) made that clear with its earnings report today today.

FedEx results are closely watched as a leading indicator on the economy. The company said earnings will be stressed for much of the year because of high jet fuel costs and customers squeezed enough to choose cheaper services to handle their delivery needs.

Next week will offer another market bears more opportunities to drive the market lower with key economic reports as existing-home sales on Monday and new-home sales on Wednesday and reports on consumer confidence on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Wednesday.

Earnings reports from Oracle (ORCL, news, msgs) and Deutsche Bank (DB, news, msgs) may also move markets.

It was not just a financial stock rally

Today's rally was much more than just financial stocks, in part because a series of options for stocks, indexes and futures all expired.

More than 2.7 billion shares traded hands on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Gainers were ahead of decliners by 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Twenty-five Dow stocks were higher, along with 417 S&P 500 stocks and 89 Nasdaq-100 stocks.

Stock Charts (Year)

Citigroup
Graphical chart for C
General Electric
Graphical chart for GE
Ryland
Graphical chart for RYL
Home builders soared. Ryland (RYL, news, msgs) was up 11.2% to $32.83. Lennar (LEN, news, msgs) added 10.7% to $17.72. Amazon.com (AMZN, news, msgs) was up 4.2% to $73.19. U.S. Steel (X, news, msgs) was up 4.3% to $114.54. Apple (AAPL, news, msgs) added 2.8% to $133.27.

Metals, agricultural, and oil-and-gas production stocks did not participate in today's rally. Crude oil fell 2.5% today to $101.84 and briefly fell to $99.50, the first time it had traded under $100 since March 5.

Gold fell $25 to $920 and was off 8% for the week. Wheat was down 93 cents to $9.81 a bushel and is off almost 18% this week. Silver, down 7% to $16.85 an ounce, is off 18% for the week.

Commodities fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 73.29, up 1% on the day and 1.7% on the week. The dollar was up 1.5% against the euro and 1.3% against the Canadian dollar.

As a result, energy and commodity stocks suffered. Alcoa (AA, news, msgs) was down 2.9% to $34.60 and finished the week down 10%. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, news, msgs) was down 0.6% for the day at $87.08 but down 4% on the week. Oil and gas producer Apache (APA, news, msgs) fell 2.2% to $107.75.

The market shrugs off bad news

The rally came despite a big jump in jobless claims and a weak report on manufacturing from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

The current economic slowdown, which many economists believe has already turned into a full-blown recession, is starting to show up in the labor market in terms of higher layoffs and weaker hiring numbers.

The number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in nearly two months, providing more evidence that the weak economy is hurting the labor market.

The Labor Department said today that applications for jobless benefits totaled 378,000 last week. That was an increase of 22,000 from the previous week and a far bigger jump than had been expected.

At the same time, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted in March for the fourth month in a row, as measures of new orders and shipments reflected weak demand. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index rose to negative 17.4 from negative 24 in February, the bank said today. Readings less than zero signal contraction. There had been talk the index was going to come in at negative 33.

Energy prices -- New York close
 Thur.Wed.Chg.Month chg.YTD chg.
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel)$101.84$104.48-$2.640.00%6.11%
Heating oil (per gallon)$2.9772$3.0167-$0.03954.84%12.37%
Natural gas (per million BTU)$9.0650$9.0240$0.0410-3.37%21.14%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon)$2.6051$2.5603$0.04483.69%4.59%

Oil prices bite FedEx

FedEx (FDX, news, msgs) said its fiscal-third-quarter earnings fell 6% on high oil prices and a slow U.S. economy.

The results beat analysts' expectations, but the parcel-delivery company lowered its estimates for fourth-quarter profit, predicting earnings of $1.60 to $1.80 per share -- below analysts' expectations of $1.95 per share -- and said high oil prices, sluggish U.S. growth and shaky credit markets are hurting results.

FedEx shares, however, finished up 0.9% to $87.02.

Stock Charts (Year)

FedEx
Graphical chart for FDX
Nike
Graphical chart for NKE
The company earned $393 million, or $1.26 per share, down from $420 million, or $1.35 per share a year ago. Revenue rose 10% to $9.44 billion from $8.59 billion a year ago.

Thomson Financial says analysts expected earnings of $1.22 per share on sales of $9.11 billion.

Nike takes off

Nike (NKE, news, msgs) shares rose nicely today as investors reacted to the athletic apparel and shoe company's strong fiscal third-quarter results.

The stock was up 8.8% to $67.27 after news that the company posted a 30% increase in profit, and its net income and revenue surpassed Wall Street's expectations. Aided by the weak dollar, overseas sales grew 20%.

Citigroup analyst Kate McShane said Nike is increasing sales in a difficult market. She credited its well-known brands, international growth and inventory management.

McShane rates the stock "buy" and says Nike is her top pick in the apparel and footwear sector.

Borders sale?

Shares of struggling bookseller Borders (BGP, news, msgs) were off 29% to $5.07 today after the company said late Wednesday that it may put itself up for sale and has lined up $42.5 million in financing to help the chain continue operations.

Borders, which is the nation's second-largest bookseller but has lost market share both to online companies and to Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs), said the financing commitment comes from investment funds affiliated with Pershing Square Capital Management, a major shareholder, and includes an offer to buy Borders' international businesses.

"We believe that consummation of the transactions under the commitment will make us fully funded for 2008, where, absent these measures, liquidity issues may otherwise have arisen in the next few months," Borders CEO George Jones said in a statement.

Stock Charts (Year)

Borders
Graphical chart for BGP
CIT Group
Graphical chart for CIT
After postponing its scheduled fourth-quarter earnings results Wednesday, the company reported net income of $64.7 million, or $1.10 a share, compared with a loss of $73.6 million, or $1.22, a year ago. Revenue fell 2% to $1.35 billion from $1.37 billion last year. Analysts had expected profits of $1.42 per share on sales of $1.37 billion.

Borders shares slipped 1.1% to $7.02 in early trading.

CIT shares dive on financing woes

Shares of commercial finance company CIT Group (CIT, news, msgs) tumbled after the company said today that it had drawn down on its $7.3 billion in bank credit lines, as disruptions in credit markets hurt its ability to refinance debt that will be due in the coming months. Down as much as 45%, the stock finished with a loss of 17% to $9.63. The company also said it will look for new sources of funds and will sell off non-core business lines and assets to raise cash.

The moves highlight the stress on the company, The Wall Street Journal noted.

CIT's stock, which was halted pending the announcement, had fallen by nearly a third Thursday and by more than 50% over the past week as concerns mounted about its financing. Fitch warned late Wednesday it might downgrade the company's credit ratings over concerns about its refinancing needs. Earlier this week, Moody's Investors Services and Standard & Poor's cut its ratings on CIT.

Short hits from the markets -- 4 p.m.
 Thur.Wed.Chg.Month chg.YTD chg.
Treasurys
13-week Treasury bill0.500%0.650%-0.150-72.22%-84.08%
5-year Treasury note yield2.340%2.343%-0.003-6.74%-32.27%
10-year Treasury note yield3.328%3.362%-0.034-5.83%-17.52%
30-year Treasury bond yield4.165%4.222%-0.057-5.77%-6.59%
Currencies
U.S. Dollar Index73.29072.6200.670-0.63%-4.44%
British pound in dollars$1.9865$1.98450.0020-0.18%-0.14%
Dollar in British pounds £0.5034£0.5039-0.00050.18%0.14%
Euro in dollars1.54371.5649-0.02131.70%5.62%
Dollar in euros€ 0.6478€ 0.63900.0088-1.67%-5.32%
Dollar in yen ¥99.44¥98.640.80-4.54%-11.10%
Canadian dollar in U.S. dollars$0.978$0.989-$0.0113-3.65%-1.54%
U.S. dollar in Canadian dollars$1.023$1.011$0.01173.60%1.49%
Commodities
Gold$920.00$945.30-$25.30-7.95%9.79%
Copper$3.5735$3.6335-$0.06-6.65%17.51%
Silver$16.8500$18.4450-$1.60-18.42%12.94%
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel)$101.84$104.48-$2.64-7.59%6.11%

Elizabeth Strott is on vacation.

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