Bill Fleckenstein: Fed policy and the case for a return to the gold standard

Contrarian Chronicles11/12/2010 6:00 PM ET

Who needs dollars when we have gold?

The Fed's irresponsible policies have led to serious discussion of a return to a gold-based monetary system. It's about time.

By Bill Fleckenstein
MSN Money

Major currencies throughout history have had periods of ascension, dominance and fall from grace.

"Sound as the pound" was a phrase coined, as it were, during the days of the British Empire. "The almighty dollar" might be the U.S. version of that sentiment, although it connotes a sense of the mercenary aspect of the American dream, along with the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

The dollar's position has for generations been thought unassailable, but the war of words against it has increased as other countries have started to realize what our central bank is actually up to and how it will affect them.

Q: How do you get out of Bretton Woods?

What his motive was I can't say, but as recently as Nov. 7, Robert Zoellick, the U.S.-born president of the World Bank, wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times that was a less-than-ringing endorsement of the dollar-denominated world most of us have known all our lives.

Headlined "The G-20 must look beyond Bretton Woods II" (registration required), the article discussed the need for the world to develop a new currency regime, given the chaos caused by undisciplined monetary policies championed by the most irresponsible central bank that has ever governed the world's reserve currency.

While there were not really any new ideas from Zoellick, his scheme did include gold as a serious potential investment on the part of world central banks: "Although textbooks may view gold as old money, markets are using gold as an alternative monetary asset today."

The op-ed itself was so newsworthy that the Financial Times, which has in the past been a hater of gold, covered it on the front page of its print edition with the headline "Zoellick seeks gold standard debate."

A: Follow the yellow brick road

I have long maintained that at some point the world would run out of patience with the "confetti standard" and consider a monetary base involving gold. That's because, even though most of the "orthodox" money men who run the central banks around the world don't like it (due to its inflexibility), they will be driven toward gold by the inherently destabilizing policies of the Federal Reserve. It seems like that is an idea whose time may now be a lot closer than most would have thought.

My expectation -- in fact, my hope -- has been that we see a good deal more debate about alternative monetary systems, and it actually did not take long for some of those hopes, at least, to be realized, albeit by the gold bears.

Where there isn't the will. . .

Just a day after running Zoellick's op-ed, the Financial Times returned to its roots with a handful of anti-gold stories.

In a Nov. 8 editorial headlined "Gold digging at the World Bank," it said that it "is instructive to ask what useful role gold can play in today's world economy. The answer is probably none at all."

The FT quickly followed up that comment with this nonsense: "But if such political will can be found, there are better anchors than gold; until then, gold will not work."

. . . Gold is the way

I've read that several times, and it still doesn't make much sense, and it is somewhat shocking how badly the FT misses the point. If we had strong political will and sound financial leadership in every country in the world, or at least most of the major ones, we wouldn't be in the predicament we are in.

But human nature, bureaucrats and politicians being what they are, we can't look to them to provide the fortitude needed to maintain truly sound currencies. Yet, even given that, the FT implies that gold wouldn't work. I guess it is completely oblivious to any successful economic periods in the world before 1971.

In addition to the editorial, there was a "serious" follow-up article regarding Zoellick's op-ed, headlined, "Zoellick's call on gold standard dismissed." The article devoted most of its ink to former Fed economist and gold bear Edwin Truman, who published an absurd suggestion in mid-October that the U.S. should sell all of its gold. Naturally, he was negative on the metal and called Zoellick's ideas about gold "inappropriate."

What it lacks in supply, it can make up in price

The FT concluded that article with a lame quotation from a UBS analyst, Edel Tully, who said, "Any reserve currency needs a supply that can grow as rapidly as global trade. Gold supply falls significantly short of this basic requirement."

My problem with that is that no one knows in advance how fast world trade is supposed to grow.

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The beauty of a gold-based monetary system is that while perhaps, in theory, world growth of gross domestic product might not be as brisk as it could be, due to the self-correcting feature of the gold standard, the world would be infinitely less likely to be forced to experience the debilitating financial problems now facing the Western world, which were created by the fiat money printers.

In any case, despite the anti-gold tendencies of the mainstream press, it is worthwhile to see the topic of a gold standard being debated. Sooner or later, smart people with constructive ideas might be heard, and perhaps that will help move the dialogue forward even further.

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90Comments
12/11/2010 8:55 AM
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ACTIVE IRA

 

Only gold and oil have value?  Sure.  (I hope you have a bowl- full tonight.  Yum.)

 

And what about knowledge, skill, food, timber, water, labor, or even salt?  I could go on...TP, tooth brushes, tampons, anti-biotics, iridium, semi-conductors, fill-dirt, safety pins, porno, refrigerators, eye wear, houses, condoms, shoes, and super bowl tickets.

 

Okay, gold has value because...well...because it is shiny and has some minor industrial uses...and because...well just because it can be traded and people put a price on it. In a currency.

 

 

 

 

12/11/2010 8:36 AM
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My family went through the currency crash in Germany in the 1930s and the devastation of the war that followed. Gold was meaningless during the worst of times in both the depression and 1944-46.   Cigarettes could get you a chicken.  Toilet paper might get you two loaves of bread. A small basket of strawberries went for a watch.  A gold watch, but ONLY if it worked.

 

In truly hard and chaotic times, gold is just a metal.  You cannot eat it. It does not brush teeth. It cannot bandage a wound. It cannot cure an infection. It simply has no utility.  None.  You are far better off with farmland in such cases.

 

Still, those who owned gold and were able to hide it from the Nazis and the Occupation Forces and the Swiss Bankers, were able to recover faster during the reconstruction ... once currencies were re-established in a free market. Then it had value because it could be traded for currency and be put to use putting people to work, building businesses, etc.

 

My advice: keep some gold (maybe 5- 10% of your wealth) as a hedge against disaster or hyperinflation.  But remember that it will not save you in a calamity.

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Paper is precisely that and has no true value except the value we humans put upon it. Gold is a rare, precious metal making it more worthy of investment. If you want to solve the $$ problem, you will probably need to go back to the bartar system and come up the pike again 

 

11/29/2010 10:42 AM
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I would like to know why gold has value?  And also the dollar?  One is metal and one is paper. Lots of both of these on the planet.  We will never answer either question.

 

Aint life grand.

11/28/2010 10:58 PM
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If the US returned to the gold standard, our economy would go into a depression.  Reasons being:  trade is reflected by our currency and so is the trade deficient.  If our currency became that stable, the value per dollar would sky rocket, but the outsourcing of jobs would sky rocket too, because it would make Chinese labor even more cheap.  Therefore, American labor would become too expensive.
11/28/2010 10:53 PM
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Nerd  by the by, for those of you following along who actually want a solution: bretton woods III to create a super-IMF, build a basket of world currencies (yen, renminbi, dollar, deutschmark, etc.) AND the two (and only two) SUPER-COMMODITIES gold and oil, and then create pre-defined special drawing rights that are balanced and enforced to allow for handling future financial crises.  that would work.  the return to a gold standard is like saying let's go back to letting out blood with leeches to cure the plague - beyond ridiculous.

 

but what will happen? this thread will continue to be populated by posts where the author has no comprehension of the above paragraph and wouldn't know the difference between a renminbi and a ham sandwich.  and that is what you are being fed here: a big fat ham sandwich - feels good going down but then you won't like the eventual bout of cancer will you?

 

in any case, enjoyed the discussion and the free-speech!  peace.

11/28/2010 9:21 PM
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Sick  how lost are you?  granted he writes some quality articles, but the guy has spent his entire career in sales, apparently has no financial degrees or certifications, and yet you trust him to opine about the science of economics?  he is a conservative anti-keynesian who is ignoring the criminals who need to be brought to account by be-dazzling readers with quick-fix ideas that will never last.

 

it does sell newsletters to conservative perma-bears though by re-spewing fox ideas that his readership laps up. 

 

Sick retchhhh ...  Sick bleahhheck ....  what a mess .....

11/28/2010 4:29 AM
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Pay no attention to those who know nothing and will never understand even the simple basics of Economics 101 and keep up your honest, intelligent and spot on reporting Bill! You are the best my friend! Thumbs up A few of us in the world have the painful job of telling it like it is and not what the majority want to hear. Wink
11/27/2010 9:20 PM
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check out alexastock
11/27/2010 2:04 PM
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Sick  fleck, you just make me nauseous. you criticize the FT for missing the point and then you obtusely post the following: "the debilitating financial problems now facing the Western world, which were created by the fiat money printers."

 

the debilitating financial problems facing the western world were caused by human greed and a passive sheeple populace who let the incestuous relationship between the big bank/WS financial terrorists, the politicians in congress and the big corp. ceo's grow into a ravenous money vortex that ran amok while raping and pillaging the world's financial system. you, for one, stood by and let it happen. and now you profit by writing about it. you are simply a hired underling grateful to take the $ scraps that fall from the gluttonous orgy table of feasting.

 

the gold standard was abandoned for good reason and a return to it will solve nothing.  we need laws and regulations that are enforced, perp walks, publicly televised canings (yes, corporal punishment ala singapore), and the means to claw back the ill-gotten gains from these criminal financial terrorists that have so insidiously seeped into our economy.

 

go look at you tube max kaiser financial terrorist and get an idea about how fed up many of us are with your pathetic excuses and attempts to re-direct our attention from this criminal activity.  shameful sir, just shameful.  

11/24/2010 10:34 AM
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Reliable sources tell me that a small fully owned susidiary of a well known silicon valley software firm that had been researching  new alloys for things such as microscopic integrated circuits and green energy applications has discovered a relatively low cost way of extracting gold from sea water. Apparently they feel that once they jump what they think should be a few fairly low technological/environmental hurdles they should be able to extract the gold for about $250/oz. What effect will that have on the price of gold? Will that make the idea of a gold standard more or less likely?
11/24/2010 9:28 AM
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The gold bubble is being caused by Fox News propaganda and all the ads featuring G Gordon Liddy scarring grandma and grandpa that the US dollar will become valueless.  These old tea party people think gold has intrinsic value.  Wall Street spurs it on for the commissions and short term gains.  There is very little use for gold beyond "bling" and limited industry use.  If the World's economy completely collapses,  you couldn't trade an ounce of gold for a chicken wing.
11/22/2010 12:45 AM
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Most american people have no clue to the havoc that is coming due to the end of the so called dollar as the world's reserve currency.  It has the inherit danger of bringing the worst case of hyperinflation in the history of the world to the land where the United States used to be.

11/21/2010 11:00 PM
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Secret telling  if you guys and gals really want to make money with your investments long term you will read and re-read that last hava post.  next, you need to form a relationship with a professional capable of navigating these turbulent waters by deftly entering, exiting, employing and shorting the various sectors mentioned.

 

this is the "new normal" folks due to globalization, necessary money flooding and the fix that WE put ourselves in by not controlling these greedy politicians, banksters, wealthy modern-day robber-baron families, ceo's and their incestuous board of director partners-in-crime.

 

you can whine about it, spend your time watching and re-spewing political spin and placing blame, or you can move on and protect your family's wealth.  it's all up to you.

 

choose wisely.

11/21/2010 10:49 PM
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Hot good post observation, and very good points as well.

 

for starters, please re-read my post, and pay particular attention to the fifth word in the header to the post.  those asking others to get their factual splinters straight should first address the factual beam in their own eye.

 

now then, while i do agree with much of your viewpoint, i strongly disagree with the logic you employ. the failed countries you cite permanently devalued their currencies. that is not, and has never been, the strategy espoused by mr. bernake and fed. the current operation is pure keynsian and looks to an end game of eventual fiscal austerity, reduced national debt and balanced budget.  you remember those days don't you? yep, bill clinton did it with good timing, no wars and a return to reasonable federal tax rates.

 

we were great then.  time to be great again.

 

enough of this negative nelly and gloomy gus stuff.  first we save the patient from the great bodily harm inflicted, next we cut spending and eliminate earmarks and lobbyist money, next we put in campaign finance reform and term limits, next we cut entitlement programs while also cutting federal employment (they get retrained for green and export business employment) and we also tax the bejeebers out of the ultra wealthy and end tax-welfare for the rich. 

 

the question is will you be part of the solution or a partisan part of the problem and end up with tire tracks from the positive change bus?  we can do this.   

11/21/2010 12:45 PM
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The argument about a gold standard or any other standard (diamonds, oil, real estate, silver, etc.) is absurd. Currently, there exists 20,000 tons of mined gold in the world and the US has 8,000 tons.  Based on the elements atomic weight about 100,000 tons still exist on this planet.  Half of the present production comes from South Africa and half of the yet to be found is estimated to be in the ground there.  It would be disadvantageous for most countries to make gold a standard measure of wealth.  Wealth has to be measured by relative GDP based on world supply and demand for all commodities and services.  Each country's currency must be adjusted periodically for the relative GDP and the US is currently going through such an downward adjustment due to overinflated real estate values.  Weather US dollars continue to go down or goes back up is entirely based on our ability to grow or shrink our GDP relative to debt.  Gold is only one HEDGE against deflation and inflation as our all bonds, commodities and equities to varying degrees relative to their respective supply and demand.  INVEST accordingly!

  

11/21/2010 8:07 AM
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@ Active RIA:
  Great examples. The US Fed develops a monetary policy whereby dollars are credited to its account before  they are even spent, and the banking system does likewise in the most flagrant use of leverage ever known. That is what is fundamentally flawed with the current "fractional reserve" banking system, and Bernanke and company--you, too, if you are an economist--should know this. I defy you to name one country which has successfully devalued its currency and continued to function as an economic power long thereafter. And by that, I mean in terms of centuries. So far, the US has been on borrowed time and deficits since 1971; it had been in question since 1944, and even before that with the invention of the Federal Reserve. The Fed's original role was to stabilize a currency so that gold panics and credit crunches would not cripple the economy. This, it has recently done admirably. Yet its function is not to specifically create jobs by monetary machinations, and Bernanke is overstepping his bounds in this regard.
As for ending the Great Depression years ago, it might behoove you to realize that gold was essentially confiscated and banned from public ownership in 1933 in order to prop up the dollar. At that time, gold standards were still accepted in international trade, which was in a high state of flux. 
Please get your facts straight before posting, or should I disregard them as "political spin"?
11/20/2010 9:21 PM
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Hot  some facts. figures and opinions:

 

1.  Bill Fleckenstein is not an economist nor does he have an econ education and should therefore be disregarded as political spin;

 

2.  Old ideas are simply that, old ideas: we went off the gold standard for good reason years ago to end the great depression;

 

3.  We are not talking about carrying around gold currency people, my goodness read a little bit and learn what a "gold standard" is before opining further (it would take but a single one-ounce pure coin kept in fort knox);

 

4.  If some of you were the Fed Chairman we would have been jerked back into the dark ages in 2008 and would now be using a barter system for daily survival;

 

5.  The statement about who owns the most gold is simply unknowable and thus pure speculation and spin by one poster;

 

6.  There is no mainstream consensus for even considering a return to the gold standard, and the disadvantages FAR outweigh the advantages;

 

7.  Ben Bernanke is a genius and true American hero.

 

Still, every prudent American should have about $10k in accessible gold coins as a ready reserve just in case this coming gridlock caused by the Tea Party leads to a second great depression.

 

11/20/2010 6:47 PM
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here's why gold might need to come back and has been a part of the worlds monetary system from the beginning of monetary systems until the 70's.  One ouce of gold represents effort.  The effort to mine it, melt it, and store it, etc.  One hundred ounces of gold represents one hundred times that effort.  with paper money it takes exactly the same amount of effort to print a one dollar bill as it does a million dollar bill and we have been printing a lot of those bills and the effort backing them is????
11/20/2010 4:20 PM
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Gold it is! You are right on the money as usual Bill. Thumbs up Good luck in teaching the ignorant and uninformed Economics 101 failures anything though. Eye-rolling Just let them learn with a doze of reality and one day they'll be as wise as us. Wink
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