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Bill Fleckenstein

Contrarian Chronicles5/18/2009 12:01 AM ET

A trio of views to guide investors

Two notable articles point to a less-than-shapely recovery, while a third leaves at least one reader stirred, if not shaken.

By Bill Fleckenstein
MSN Money

Recently I read three extremely thought-provoking articles. Although none made me want to rush out and buy stocks, they're certainly worth bringing to the attention of my readers.

The first: Jeremy Grantham's latest quarterly letter, headlined "The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years" (.pdf file). I encourage everyone to read it, save it and read it a few more times. This is one of the best investment articles I've encountered in my 30 years as a money manager.

Imagining the outcomes

Grantham does a particularly good job of explaining why trying to come up with guesses about market outcomes -- a fool's game that those of us in the business are always engaged in -- is more difficult now than it has been at many junctures in the recent past.

I won't try to paraphrase his view on where we are right now because, as he notes, in light of the environment, one has to give one's best ideas a wide berth.

That said, Grantham does present his own probabilities for various outcomes. He also shares some really interesting insights regarding investment "rigor mortis," a very seductive and dangerous trap that catches nearly everyone on occasion and keeps them from moving when it's time for action.

In addition, he introduces the concept of a recovery that has a "VL" shape, which I find quite interesting. This is an economy "in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick but superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth."

Regarding all the stimuli government is handing out, Grantham makes a point that I have thought about but not expressed: Stocks react to stimuli a lot more quickly than the economy reacts.

His expansion of that belief: "If the stock market is many times more sensitive to financial stimulus in the short term than the economy is, then we could easily get a prodigious response to the greatest monetary and fiscal stimulus by far in U.S. history."

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Will commodity prices keep rising? © SuperStock
Will commodity prices keep rising?
Global FX market strategist Andrew Busch discusses the recent rally in commodities and the impact of recent Federal Reserve actions.

Determining what's next

The second article is by Jim Stack of InvesTech Research, one of the best investment services available at a reasonable price. Jim's recent commentary straddles the fence, trying to decide whether the recent move up is a bear market rally or a new bull market. Some of his technical measures are shaping up to suggest odds that the market will trade higher before it trades aggressively lower.

Importantly, he notes that the Coppock Guide, a model I have followed for 20 years (but regrettably not adhered to), could turn positive if the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) holds above the 875 level through the end of this month. For those who don't know, this is a technical measure that has enjoyed a pretty darned good record over the past 90 years or so in terms of identifying low-risk buying opportunities.

Continued: A born-again gold bull

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1 - 7 of 7
Monday, May 18, 2009 6:05:49 AM
This was Bill's best article to date, and the side material was incredible. Thank you, I can't remember the last time I read something all the way through like I read this one. :-)
Monday, May 18, 2009 8:05:19 AM
Really great article.  I have read all the material referenced.  Thanks.
Monday, May 18, 2009 10:59:17 AM
I wondered all the time why people would say Alan Greenspan is a genius; people were impressed by his choice of vocabulary, they had to pull out a dictionary to look up words he used.
I remember reading Bill Fleckenstein, he is one of the few people who thought Greenspan is a bubble maker. Now every one knows Greenspan and Clinton's administration is responsible for this financial calamity we are facing, they planted very bad seeds, they grew to become trees and now bearing bitter fruits, it takes time.

I read above mentioned Jeremy Grantham's article, next 10 years don't look good. We need to elect leaders at local, state and federal level with analytical degrees such as in Mathematics, Sciences and advanced economics. We need to stop electing lawyers and people with liberal arts degrees, they would have wrong skills to make right decisions. 
 
How can we have head of FDIC a lawyer, senate finance committee members with degrees in English and law? wrong skills for the job, no wonder we are in a huge economic mess for years to come. Are we going to have next surgeon general a lawyer or one with a liberal arts degrees? God help us.

Now that the new president is bailing out unions, can we ask him to bail out 401K accounts, those without any pensions.  A  traditional  pension is secure and can be counted on and guaranteed by pension guarantee corporation. Who is guaranteeing 401Ks? We need one standard not double or triple standards. We need a national pension plan for every one not just for public school teachers & police officers only (who can retire at age 50 with at least 70% of their maximum salary in retirement).
White collar educated people with degrees who work in private corporations are hurting the most, they have no unions no representation, they getting fired and no one to help them, no questions asked.
Jobs are outsourced and in-sourced to H1-B workers from other countries. Why do we need foreign workers, do we really have a shortage of workers in USA?; 600,000 jobs per month are lost each month and they cant find a qualified worker among these unemployed?
Does the Congress and Senate know what is going on, or they just don't want to know because corporate executives are making huge campaign donations for them to get reelected, so they can have secure job with life time health care and pensions.  

Monday, May 18, 2009 2:15:30 PM

Forget the 401K - we should have restructured the largest Ponzi scheme of all (social security) years ago by at least  privatizing the employee's contribution of  ****. Allowing only the safest of investment. Just think if you had the 6.2% you contributed out of all your paychecks since you began earning when you turn 65 years old. That would be a tidy sum. You could actually let the employer's match go to the Fed. Gov. to help the indigent.

I saw the VL curve coming when all this spending was being talked about - the trick is to sell what you have left invested at the top of the V. The fed will have little choice to eventually increase interest rates but will be slow ( even as inflation surges) to do it as it will still be coping with bad loans, a down real estate market , failing banks and unemployment. Really the worst of all possibilities as fixed income investments will not be able to keep up with the true cost of living of which the Fed. always lies about anyway. So where to invest? I have never been a gold fan but my mind is changing.             

Tuesday, May 19, 2009 11:59:52 PM

Life as we knew it, will not come back but ff we do not change the financial system, the the current situation may end in disaster. First we have to identify the root cause of the problems we are in, which is usury and credit. Usury is the charging of interest on money. Credit is the creation of money out of nothing.

 

The charging of interest is the way to slavery. This is because people may be hoarding money for a rainy day. When more people do this simultaneously, money is removed from circulation, weakening the economy. When this happens, even more people will start hoarding money, because they expect times getting worse. This is the beginning of an economic crisis. Many people will lose their income, and if they do not have money, they must borrow money against interest for unavoidable expenses such as food. As a result, the situation becomes even worse.

Credit and interest on money make it possible for an economy to grow above potential during a boom phase. In the boom phase investors add leverage using credit which further intensifies the boom, creating shortages of materials and labour resulting in rising prices. Interest on money entices banks to lend money to leveraged investors during the boom phase. Credit makes it possible to create money out of thin air, which further enables the banks to fuel the boom. When the cycle turns into bust, investors start to deleverage, which further intensifies the bust, creating surpluses of materials and labour resulting in falling prices. What most economists do not see, is that credit and interest on money are the root causes of economic booms and busts.

It is possible to achieve a much greater prosperity, with maximum capital growth without inflation, large debts, economic crises, unproductive government intervention and the unproductive part of the financial sector. Natural selection will ultimately determine the most efficient economic system, despite the political power structures that still exist at this moment. The investigation of alternatives and dissemination of knowledge will accelerate this process, but the ultimate outcome will not change. The most efficient monetary system is based on money with a hoarding fee combined with banning of credit and the charging of interest on money.

The theory is described here:
http://www.naturalmoney.org/short.html
http://www.naturalmoney.org/full-theory.html

This is not a joke because famous economists and scientists did see this too:
http://www.naturalmoney.org/gift.html

Also there is a conversion plan to the new system and a plan to build a sustainable future using this system:
http://www.naturalmoney.org/conversionplan.html
http://www.naturalmoney.org/buildfuture.html

I hope you like it. You do not have to agree with all of it to find it interesting.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 9:46:52 PM
Wonderful article and excellent read. One thing missing is the generational shifts occurring in our country that are similar to Japan. The next 20 years will be flat to negative as we shift from spenders to savers.  The Census shows that the next decade of spenders will be dropping in half! This demographic portends that we will have a very poor future with deflation/inflation depending on the shift and the asset; clearly housing will stay down and never bounce back as the boomers downsize out of Mcmansions. Be careful and NEVER invest more than 10% in any one investment!

Good Luck All.

Friday, May 22, 2009 12:31:53 AM
dear 401k: what about reaganomics & W's economic "policies" and their contribution to this mess? also, the senate is part of congress. your statement, "congress and senate", is redundant.
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