Bill Fleckenstein: Most investors don't own enough gold to worry

Contrarian Chronicles10/8/2010 5:00 PM ET

Why you (probably) need more gold

The Fed seems set on a course that leads to inflation and a devalued currency, yet investors worry about the price of gold. Most don't own enough to be hurt by it -- or enough to protect themselves from  a currency disaster.

By Bill Fleckenstein
MSN Money

A New York Times story on its Oct. 1 website about the Federal Reserve's tilt toward more quantitative easing spelled out the current thinking at the central bank. And even though said thinking did not surprise me in the least, it was still a bit of a shock to see it in black and white:

"What the officials are saying, in increasing unison, is that inflation is undesirably low, well below the implicit target of about 2%, and that unemployment, at 9.6%, is far too high."

The dead ends justify the means

I had expected the Fed to reach this conclusion, yet I still found it startling to have it stated so starkly in The New York Times. Why the Fed willfully and knowingly desires to debase the currency by pushing more liquidity into the market ought to be a question on everybody's mind, but it isn't.

Yet this is the path we are on.

In that light, I found it almost comical in the same article when one of the advocates of more quantitative easing made it sound as if anything was OK as long as the motive was pure. Bill Dudley, head of the central bank's New York branch, said that it was "fundamentally mistaken" that the Fed was monetizing U.S. debt because -- in the author's words, paraphrasing Dudley -- "the Fed would be creating money only to help get the recovery back on track, not to relieve the country's fiscal strains."

It truly is mind-boggling that Fed heads think they can convince the world that motive is all that matters.

In my day, prices had to walk 5 miles to get to deflation

Of course, the consequence of what the Fed has done and will do is more inflation.

The Oct. 2 Wall Street Journal website carried an unauthorized (from the deflationist point of view) article continuing the theme of "not your grandfather's deflation," headlined, "Gingerly, retailers try to pass along higher costs." It began as follows: "Companies that sell consumer mainstays from beer to dresses, from steaks to tires, are rolling out price increases in a collective test of America's economic strength."

The article goes on to detail various price hikes from different businesses and makes it quite clear there are inflationary pressures far and wide. Interestingly enough, the reporter noted that many companies are saying that "some labor costs are rising, particularly for overseas manufacturing."

Unfortunately, the statistics are less likely to capture the trickier maneuver, which is fairly ubiquitous these days, of companies keeping the price of a product the same but shrinking the unit size.

It remains to be seen when the bond market is going to conclude that deflation is not the order of the day and that it is quite clear that inflation has reared its head and will likely remain.

Continued: Gold worries go parabolic 

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23Comments
12/04/2010 12:14 AM
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gold,gold,gold many people are buying gold as safe investment. There are two reason for it, one paper money looses value, and demand for  it ,makes precious metal keeps on going up. world has few mines left that produces gold. now they have to go deeper to get more gold, hence more cost is involved to go deeper.

           india and china are two countries that will always drive the demand. coins in gold has more value and been passed on from one generation to another. still various cultures worldwide use gold as a valuable commodity. demand for gold will always be there. looking at 1974 and now 2010, gold has moved up.

          mining for gold involves labor, and drilling and machinery which will be going up, so to place fair price in future it will hold at $800.00 but it will never go back to where it was before. price adjusts accordingly with inflation.

       In next 20 years gold will be going up and still will hold value. but currency worldwide will be devalued. land and property has lost lot of value. but gold will hold its value as

the world moves on. now diamonds will loose value since it will be manufactured. gold will be hard to be made in labs.

       gold will be used more and more in electronics, and medical field for its purity and properties. paper money is being manipulated worldwide to stabilize economy. so it wont hold more value. countries will loose faith in paper money to trade goods. so gold will be used to trade.

   many third world countries lost lot of value in currency and hence the purchasing power has gone down. in short in future like bonds, stocks it will be wise to also include gold to

balance the portfolio and have leverage during downturn. now globalization has started, its important to have gold for trade. it will be very important next to currency.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/18/2010 9:32 PM
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What about stealth inflation?  You know where the price stays the same but they give you LESS product.  My wife calls it lying through omission, like when my wife ask "Why didn't you tell me you went to Hooters?"and I answer "because you didn't ask"!!!

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As the Fed devalues the dollar, commodities like copper, gold and silver are soaring to record levels....when these higher prices trickle down to the consumer level it may be painful for those who need to buy these commodities. Savers and Retirees are Big Losers in this economy....Wall STreet players the Huge Winners. Take your choice.
10/11/2010 6:30 PM
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Flecky recommends gold, film at 11.  Way to keep it fresh, like your mullet.
10/11/2010 5:03 PM
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In the latter days..."A loaf of bread will cost a bag of gold".  I wish I had more...
10/11/2010 4:59 PM
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Gold is not in a bubble. Gold, being the best arbiter of the dollar's value, has increased in price. It really isn't suggestive of gold strength, but rather dollar weakness. Since it is inflation that moves the price of gold upward, and given the Fed is about to create even more inflation by further expanding its balance sheet, gold has no where to go but up. The only bubble I see right now is in Treasuries. That is the mother of all bubbles, and will make the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble and housing bubble look like a Sunday school picnic in comparison.
10/11/2010 2:45 PM
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Smile

I like Guns,Bullets,Gold,& Silver when people go crazy!

10/11/2010 2:36 PM
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Gold and silver are the antithesis of fiat money. They are the only way to restore order out of chaos. Look for this liquidity being produced by our government to push up the price of stocks and bonds before they collapse. Even speculative paper is selling at its fastest pace in a year. Others think that gold and silver are the place to be as their prices are going up. Investors are chasing yield and that is the worst possible thing that you can do. You begin to sacrifice quality and junk is eventually destroyed. The Fed and the Treasury have created an intolerable situation for those who need income. I speak of the retirees in their 70's and 80's who are forced to chase yields.

 

And a first has happened that has not been seen in a long time. The bullion banks as they are known are Citi Group. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Hong Kong Shanghai Bank. Goldman Sachs and BOA.  They are the banks that traditionally have been given the job of suppressing the price of gold and silver on the various exchanges, especially the COMEX, which is also known as CRIMEX. Recently, on Sept 30, 2010 there were thousands of gold and silver options that were set to expire on this date with the expiration price being $1300 for gold and $21.50 for silver. If on that date, gold and silver finishes lower than these two prices, the options are then said to be "out of the money" and expire worthless.

 

Routinely, 85% of all options expire worthless, and this is done via manipulation. (FRAUD) Especially, talking now about gold and silver options and gold stock options.  Buying options on gold and gold stocks have mostly never been worthwhile. They may be from now on anyway: watching this date, Sept 30th, with intensity because the buying of gold was so strong; wanted to see if the gold and silver shorts could be overcome. It would be a first in a long time. Lo and Behold, the shorts were left in the dust. The banks must now cover their shorts unless they want to lose billions. Cover means to buy back the gold and silver they sold at a lower price. They pay the higher price and lose the difference. Beautiful! To explain the following:

 

JP Morgan is the prime lead bank in doing this. It routinely floods the gold and silver markets with NAKED short futures contracts. Naked means they do not have the silver and gold to sell short.  It is without the metal collateral. JPM and the other banks appear totally exempt from collateral rule enforcement.

 

JPM and the large bullion banks seem to hold huge concentrated positions that never seem to diminish, but rather grow each and every year. The size of their total position is usually greatly in excess of annual global production and has no possible bearing on mining operations.

 

JP Morgan routinely sells gold and silver futures contracts during thin market times like early in Asia, and even enlists small platoons of metal traders to join them with subtle hints and messages. They strangely show no appearance of seeking the highest metal prices.

 

JP Morgan and the other bullion banks routinely manage the exchange metals inventory with fractional techniques, whereby 100 times as much metal is sold than exists. This part of the Ponsi framework.  Thus, JP Morgan routinely win big short term profits from rigging these markets, but these gains are set up by ruinous long-term positions that never go away and always get larger.(Tyler Durden Article, Gata Article)

 
10/11/2010 2:31 PM
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77% of all Americans are living from pay check to paycheck. It means to me that in our nation of 310 million citizens, 239 million are one set back, one paycheck away from economic ruin.  People are hyped about a rising stock market? There is a total manipulation of the stock market and totally devoid of reality; of a market that needs large infusions of printed cash to go up and even to stay alive. About the PPT, (plunge protection team), that does this on a daily basis.  Nothing is as it seems or as is told to you by the media.

As we hear talk again about Quantitative Easing number 2 (money printing) which soon again will get underway, as that is the only out, the failure of QE1 become more   obvious. The crisis will worsen (count on it) and the illusion of any recovery will become light years away. To repeat, over the past three years over $13 trillion has been thrown down a rat hole to bail out the banking industry. Wall Street, insurance and selected elitist entities. The dollar figure is probably much higher but perhaps never to be known because the Federal Reserve operates behind closed doors. All these funds have disappeared among leading and financial institutions worldwide. We have had, and are going to have more of massive injections of money which do not work and will not work. Under the present condition, firstly, there has been no accounting and there will not be any accounting of these funds.

  

Our government has been extending a long-running policy of neglect, denial, short-sightedness, political expediency, and outright corruption for the past two years. The Federal Reserve has tried to prop up the increasingly uncompetitive and defective U.S. economy with what amounts to unprecedented amounts of money printing -still in effect and also slated to expand. Gold sees this and is moving up! The government, as a whole, has spend beyond its means, way beyond with abandon, doubled down on debt and is pushing the limits of inflation risks as it MILKS the outdated perception of the dollar as a " safe haven" for all its worth. But this was also true of Bush, but to a lesser extent.

 

It seems, that the U.S. government has a life and agenda of its own. It does not consider its citizens worthy of much thought, but to milk them for all the taxes they can, much like you milk a cow. It is not just the Bush tax cuts expiring. It is also the mammoth health care taxes coming; most of which people do not know about.

10/11/2010 2:29 PM
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People are terribly misled by propaganda of the worst sort. Gold is not in a bubble but really at the beginning of the greatest move it has ever seen. You have not seen anything yet.  Both of the precious metals are in a long term trend not to end for at least several years from now. Again: Gold and silver is in the biggest bull market in the history of bull markets. However, gold is overbought and can have a correction. Something can be overbought for quite a time. Nothing goes straight up. If gold does correct, it is just another buying opportunity.  Gold will to go to 1400 next. After that, move on to $1650 and then 2000. The timing is difficult, but not more than two years.

 

The Fed is stuck in a corner. They can only increase the money supply and the credit supply. That is it. They cannot increase interest rates as it would destroy what is left of anything. The Fed will have to come up with at least 2.5 trillion dollars extra or annually for the next five years.  The next QE will have to raise at least $500 billion. That is addition to the normal 2.5 trillion…do the math.

 

The Entire banking system is a train wreck that is going forward. The debt accumulated and the fraud to hide it off the balance sheet is horrendous just in thinking about it. The banks, all of them, have more expense than revenue. The main problem is that the real estate securities on their books are only worth on average 22 cents on the dollar. The solution is to let all the banks go under, to restructure, and start over. All the banks, presently, as I investigate it, have a return on investment of ZERO. Despite mammoth monetary inflation and outsized banker welfare programs, the fiscal experiment is falling before our eyes. The repeated quantitative easing will fail to turn the tide. Thus the U.S. economy is at grave risk for a deep depression. The financial sector elite syndicate (as it is now called) on Wall Street is the only priority of present monetary policy. The U.S. Fed is the main destination to park funds. The economic fallout (malaise) is not a concern, except to promote additional rescue packages, again all for banker benefit, with very little going to Main Street, which is being strangled.

10/11/2010 1:12 PM
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I don't usually agree with Fleckstein, but this time I do.
10/11/2010 12:43 PM
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If I need gold to pay for food and other necessities.

 

If it comes to that ,  you better have enough guns

and ammo!

10/11/2010 11:21 AM
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If I need gold to pay for food and other necessities, I have to find a buyer of my gold to get the cash to pay for those items. I don't know any store that accepts gold in payment for food, for example. Unless that changes, I would be at the mercy of future gold buyers to get the cash. If we get to the stage where gold has to be what we fall back on, will there be enough, or any, gold buyers at currency prices that will achieve the objectives most now talk about as reasons to purchase gold? Or will most gold owners be racing for the exit to get cash to pay for their needs, driving the price of gold down considerably?
10/11/2010 9:09 AM
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No offense to CRS; but for gold to be adjustedt for inflation it wouls be at about 2,000.  So far it is correcting to currencies.  If the US formally devalues the dollar, I think I will watch it very very hard.  Although I may get a crink in my neck from looking up at the gold prices.
10/11/2010 8:38 AM
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Be careful with gold. It's over valued. Like the housing market, gold is set to correct itself. It's a bubble. Go look at the last 10yr trend. If anything, move away from gold, wait for it to correct itself, then reconsider.
10/11/2010 7:50 AM
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Geeze you guys.  Remember Econ 101.  Lets face it.  EVERYBEODY wants to devaue their currencie to create a favorable trade balance for their country.  If a countries currency is worth less than the country they are trading with; willl look like cheap good to the customer.  Gold runs the INVERSE of the dollar (yuan, fraanc, etc)  The more a currency goes down, the higher gold will go.  Regardless of the markets or any thing else.  The value of the dollar goes down every time ben Bernanke opens his mouth,  It is a very big concern for the G7 and the IMF.  They stand ready for a concerted global effort to devaue fiat currency.  It is the only way all the countries of the wirld can get out of debt.  They balance the budget with dollars that are worth far less than the dollars they borrowed.  If you were going to pay back a debt, wouldn't you prefer to pay it with dollars that are worth .25 insstead of a dollar that is worth .95?  It is sneaky little trick on the people, but dollars to doughnuts, that is what they will do.

 

To devalue the dollar, you can just let inflation run it's course, or you can have a formal devaluation.  Every time inflation goes up, the value of our dollar oges down.  But national debt is getting far too high.  I think the united states will have to have a formal devauation of the dollar.  As will many other countries.  This weill probably be announced on a Saturday when the banks are closed.; and people will trade in their old dollaras for a larger amount of the new dollars.

 

The thing that has kept the dollar as high as it's been, is that it is supposed to be the currency countries trade it.  If Brazil wants to buy something from China, Brazil goes to the bank and gets dollars, does there trade, and China trades the dollars back in for their yuan.  Now countries are trading amongst themselves without the dollar.  The dollar can no longer be the currency of trade.  ZAM! WHAP!BONK! on our dollar.  We are seeing only downward pressure on the dollar.

 

Now what did we learn in the first paragraph!  The dollar and gold runs on the INVERSE.  Meaning if the dollar goes up gold goes down.  If th dollar goes down, gold goes up.  Kind of like the 'physics" of economics.

 

I suppose, if you were dealing with a very smart shop-keeper you could barter gold for goods.  A bit smarter way would be to sell your gold for whatever dollars you could get, and then just simply purchase what you need.  Yeah, it takes a bit of foresight, but coming out okay will take alot of foresight, or else a boat load of luck.

 

I hope things done't come to guns.  Ya now it really doesn't matter how many guns you have.  It how many bullets you have.  And even if you shot the guy with all the gold, will you know what to do with it?  Maybe in behooves some people to find out.

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The Fed and Congress are Spending like Madmen and this takes alot of printing paper money out of thin air......

The result = Inflation

10/11/2010 2:10 AM
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Bullseye!... and right on target as always Bill. Thumbs up
10/10/2010 1:50 PM
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The problem in the economy today is that "it is stuck". Meaning that it is NOT adapting. All of this talk about currencies and gold solves nothing.

 

The economy will recover when the political horse (you know what) stops and the country gets back to maintaining and improving its infrastructure and implementing new technologies. There are ideas out there but there is either no funding or political or philosophical obstacles.

 

There are obviously people who are looking at this situation through the prism of looking backwards and that is just ridiculous.

 

10/10/2010 11:23 AM
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Summers, Geithner and Bernanke have repeatedly said "the only way out of this recession is through exports." However, to stimulate exports you need to make them cheaper thus debasing the dollar....for the good or bad.

Bill Fleckenstein is right on target as usual.

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