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Michael Brush

Company Focus4/29/2009 12:01 AM ET

Why the stress tests really do matter

Nervous investors are fixed on the tests' outcomes, which means companies' stock prices will be affected.

By Michael Brush
MSN Money

Stress test, schmess test? Hardly.

Yes, as I wrote last week in "Why the bank stress tests are bunk," there's a lot wrong with the government's analyses of major banks.

But investors are plenty concerned about the results of these stress tests.

This means the tests matter a lot -- because they will move stock prices. In some cases, speculation about the results has already had that effect. And a delay in their release -- originally scheduled for May 4, now expected a few days later -- heightens the tension.

"My clients are entirely fixated on this," says Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research shop that drills down on banks' financials to assess their strengths and weaknesses.

Whalen's clients have good reason to be nervous. A poor showing in the government tests will suggest that regulators are leaning on a bank to raise fresh capital or convert its government loans into stock. Either move could punish current shareholders by diluting the value of stock in circulation beforehand.

MSN Money slide show

Will your bank pass the test? © Fancy/Veer/Corbis
Will your bank pass the test?
The nation's biggest banks have been put under the microscope, with the results of these stress tests due out soon. The tests should tell us which ones face the most trouble.

No one knows how regulators will come down on each of the 19 banks identified as probable stress-test candidates. (Several news outlets offered lists; I used the one from ProPublica for this report.)

To make educated guesses, I blended two scores from Institutional Risk Analytics:

  • One assesses capital strength, or how much capital a bank has behind its "bets," such as loans, home mortgages and investments. Sound financial strength is key here, as so many of these bets go bad.

  • The second is a letter grade that assesses the strength of business. This is important as a measure of whether a bank will be able to "earn its way out of" its problems.

For example, Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) looks thinly capitalized after its purchase of Wachovia, which brought with it big exposure to subprime mortgages. But a look at Wells Fargo's overall business strength suggests it can continue to make enough money to deal with the problems, says Whitney Tilson, a co-portfolio manager of the Tilson Focus Fund (TILFX). That is one reason he is long the stock.

I also considered the opinions of banking sector analysts at Morningstar, brokerage Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller and SNL Financial.

It's important to remember that the government will not actually grade the banks as "pass" or "fail." Instead, it's going to rank them to determine which banks most need more government support. In that spirit, I've divided the banks into three categories that assess whether they face high, medium or low financial stress in a recession that has so many borrowers sending up the white flag on loans.

You'll find my ratings in an accompanying slide show, as well as the reasons behind them.

At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares of any company or fund mentioned in this column.

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Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. © 2009. All rights reserved.
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Quotes supplied by Interactive Data.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009 7:41:52 AM

Wells Fargo Price is what makes it not a long at this point. It's basically run up all the optimism available currently at 20 bucks. There's limited upside even looking out say 2 years from now. I'd be short the stock really at this point.

 

As far as stress goes...the bank is in no danger. They're an earnings generation machine at this point. On the other side, either Wells or BoA are going to be the top earning banks after the crisis. BoA like Wells has enough cash flow generation to pay for losses.

 

The gov plays some responsibility in the whole Merril thing too. I believe BoA CEO when he says the treasury and Fed pressured them into the buy (at too high a price at the time) and to not reveal losses (and at the time in November, if BoA had told the public to expect a 15 billion dollar operating loss for the quarter from Merril...that would have been bad timing as the market was realing)

Sunday, May 03, 2009 3:13:28 AM

As rightfully reported, the stress tests will paint some investors into an economic corner.

 

However, the Administration has painted themselves into a political corner with the stress tests.  The stress test has in effect limited the options the Administration has for dealing with undercapitalized banks.

 

Finally, the "leaks" coming from Treasury, regarding information of the upcoming public announcement of the stress test results, are akin to insider information being disseminated.

Sunday, May 03, 2009 3:41:26 AM
This article, and 99.9% of the information contained therein, is completely brainwash BS.  The federal reserve bank is the cause of all of this economic mess.  You would think that after 14 recessions, Americans would not still believe that screwing with interest rates (instead of the market) printing money (instead of earning it) and granting credit to everyone (knowing full well the default rate would be high, and no, its not just subprime mortgage holders folks...learn the truth before sprewing this nonsense) can do anything but create a larger bubble down the line.  Read the book Meltdown, and it will take you to school.  Watch the documentaries at the zeitgiest website, they are free, and will wake up your mind to the truth...you are all economic slaves.  I am a CPA that has looked into the books of small mom and pops, and multi-national conglomerates, as well as reviewing the finances of thousands of Americans, from doctors to teachers.  I can tell you that substantially all of us here in America are insolvent, by every definition of the word, and the truth is that less than 10% of Americans ever hold the deed of ownership to anything, but specifically their houses.  You think yourself a homeowner, well I agrue the bank holds the deed, and will when you retire and you move to a nursing home (yes, almost 25% of the senior population is in one) and unless you have been in one for more than a second, you wouldn't know they are drugged to death essentially.  But its for your health.  So, you got this straight now, much of what most of you think is going on in Washington is wrong, they don't have your best interests at heart, really are running the country to the  ground (wait until 80,000,000 baby boomers retire over the next 5 years and destroy the remainder of the unfunded social security fund) and unless we read the declaration of independence and the constitution, and take back our own country from the crooked inside bankers that own the federal reserve and call all the shots in Washington (and are getting rich off of our tax dollars for burning money essentially) we are all headed for much more than just socialism.  That's just a fancy way of saying serf.  Well, that's what they called it  back in the day when people actually understood slavery.  Now, idiots seem to embrace it.  We have the right, no, the obligation, to honor the founding fathers and the declaration and abolish any government that interrupts or attempts to alter our pursuit of happiness. I will leave you with a final thought

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Sunday, May 03, 2009 3:43:06 AM

in the words of a great American leader from over 200 years ago written to the Secretary of State “The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.”

Sunday, May 03, 2009 5:27:50 AM

The good news: 1.  People are "waking up" to the serfdom reality;  2.  As a result, we're in the beginning stages of a gigantic shift on this planet, including a shift re: the way we "do" money;  3.  This shift (or what I call a transmutation) cannot be stopped - we're too far along, and there are too many of us to be able to contain it;  4.  Suggestion: Stay in your heart center and visualize/"feel" what things will be like when the transmutation is complete.  Note: I've learned that judging, criticizing, condemning others delays the process; the power here is in letting go of all of these...and remaining focused on the outcome we wish for in the spirit of good will.

Thanks for your thoughtful, insightful post. 

Sunday, May 03, 2009 10:39:28 AM

Folks,

 

Let’s stop pinning to tail to the Donkey (sort of speaking). This financial situation is the doing of all who participates in the free market system. Our economy can be related to the scales of justice. As long as they are balanced there is sufficient liquidity and control. However, when the scales tip to fare to one side the economy will falter.
            Financial institutions are like people. When they see an opportunity to make money they will take the risk. In this case they did it with projected profits from toxic assets. Assets they knew were very risky. I understand that risk because I am in business, and risk is an element I deal with daily. However, prudent decisions are to ensure the long-term viability of the organization. In the current situation I believe the long-term strategy of the financial institutions as a whole, (some regional and local institutions still hold to low-risk management) was to make quick returns at the risk if long-term viability. These institutions got caught up in loaning a 100% plus on homes and other ventures, insured each other risk, and failed to due diligence in the validation of the market value on the toxic investments they currently hold. Bailing them out is not the complete answer, though some government financial intervention will be necessary.

I propose a strategy by-which the taxpayer gets some direct relief. Require more openness and regulatory oversight. And force those institutions that have not managed well to fail. Taxpayers are asked to bailout the institutions through government infusions of capital. So be it! However, require those institutions to revalue the toxic loans and write off the inflated value. Additionally, require all these loans interest rates to be written down to the prevailing interest rate or a fixed rate based on the new valuation.

You may say who eats the loss: The financial institutions, because they allowed these loans to occur. This approach will reset to value of assets to market price and has the benefit of allowing folks to pay for assets at what should have been the true asset value. A side benefit to this will be an infusion of disposable income at the consumer level. These folks will spend, the economy will grow, new jobs will be created, and stability will return to our economy.

I encourage each person to get involved in this debate and communicate with your elected representatives encouraging them to do something that brings direct relief to those consumers that are caught up in this mess.

 A note of caution, similar action need to occur with credit cards because the availability of consumer credit is to easily obtained, and the interest rates are absolutely out of control.

Sunday, May 03, 2009 12:50:16 PM

I think we should find more CEO's in the financial industry dangling from their basement ceilings, maybe that would be a message to stop allowing greed to destroy the lives of good people!

 

The tide is changing  Open-mouthed

Sunday, May 03, 2009 3:04:04 PM

somehow the stress test gives the impression it is just a formality as disclosing details of the banks financial sheets remain a sensitive issue.

 

it is high time that both parties (bankers and politicians) should put aside their differences and work together to tide over this crisis.

 

Prolong squabblings, conceal of details, procrastination etc will not benefit the recovery of the global economy.

 

It has been quite a few months since the crisis hit and decision makers should ask yourselves have things been moving on or stagnanting?

Wednesday, May 06, 2009 10:39:14 AM
Personal opinion, no more money for these failed banks. Combine them into another bank and hope for the best and get the assets of these board of directors, let them live like everyone else. I lost alot in the market can I get a bailout?????????????????
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