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Michael Brush

Company Focus8/15/2007 12:01 AM ET

5 ways to invest in rebuilding the U.S.

Continued from page 1

There are some encouraging signs. California, which often leads the country in trends, is spending more. Last November, voters there approved an initiative calling for more infrastructure investment, and the state recently approved $20 billion in transportation bonds. Shortly after the Minnesota bridge collapse, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she'd like to see a $10 billion emergency infrastructure plan to repair bridges.

But it's not all good news on the political front. A week after the Minneapolis bridge collapse, President Bush rejected calls by Democrats to raise the federal gasoline tax to repair the nation's bridges -- at least until he sees reforms in how the money is spent.

"Given the choice between raising the money and pushing it off to the next election, that is always the path of least resistance," says Robert Dunphy of the Urban Land Institute, another transportation research group in Washington, D.C. "But when the bill comes due, it will be enormous."

In pure economic terms, it's actually pretty easy to make a case for more spending. Dorey estimates an extra 10-cent-a-gallon tax on gasoline would provide enough money to bring the infrastructure up to par. That would cost drivers about $75 a year, on average. But the average motorist spends $275 a year in extra repair and operating costs because of the lousy infrastructure, estimates ASCE. That can run as high as $700 a year in areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco, where the roads are particularly bad and crowded, says TRIP.

5 potential winners

If I'm right, and politicians and voters are going to consider numbers like these -- and tragedies such as the Minneapolis collapse -- and wake up to the need to spend more on the infrastructure, that will boost profits and earnings at companies with a lot of direct exposure to this kind of work.

My list of five companies that should benefit starts with Granite Construction, Sterling Construction and URS. Two indirect plays are Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC, news, msgs), which operates privatized infrastructure, and Cemex (CX, news, msgs), a Mexican cement company that gets about a fifth of its revenue from sales in the U.S.

Granite Construction

Granite is based in Watsonville, Calif., so it will benefit from California's decision to spend more on roads over the next several years. But the company is well-diversified because it also builds roads, bridges, dams, mass transit and other public infrastructure projects in 20 states.

Granite Construction produces sand, gravel and asphalt. The weak housing market is pulling the stock down, but that won't last forever. D.A. Davidson analyst John Rogers has a $70 price target on the stock. It recently traded for $61.

URS

URS is an engineering and construction management company that's well-positioned to benefit from more infrastructure spending. Indeed, higher state and local infrastructure spending spurred a 28% increase in revenue from this kind of work last quarter.

The company expects 15% to 20% revenue growth from this area next year. URS also benefits from robust demand from oil and gas producers. Ferris, Baker Watts analyst Richard Rossi has a price target of $60 on the stock, which recently traded for $50.

Sterling Construction

Sterling specializes in building and repairing the transportation and water infrastructure in Texas.

Growing infrastructure spending in the state sparked a 20% revenue increase at Sterling in the first half of this year to $140 million. It has a backlog of projects worth $394 million. Rossi has a $26.50 price target on Sterling. Infrastructure spending in Texas is being driven in part by strength in the energy sector.

Macquarie Infrastructure

This company may benefit from a growing trend towards privatizing parts of the infrastructure. It already manages aircraft servicing at nearly 70 airports, airport parking, bulk-liquid-storage facilities and a system that provides heating and cooling for buildings in Chicago.

These kinds of businesses have high barriers to entry and they produce reliable cash flow, says Citigroup (C, news, msgs) analyst Brian Chin. He says this makes Macquariea defensive play if the economy is slowing down. Chin has a buy rating and a $51 price target on the stock, which recently sold for $42. Macquarie pays a dividend yield of 5.4%.

Cemex

Cemex sells building materials like cement, aggregate, asphalt and concrete. It got 19% of its $4.9 billion in first-quarter sales from the U.S., so housing weakness here is a drag on the company. But infrastructure spending should help offset that, says Citigroup analyst Stephen Trent. So will strong growth in Central and South America, Europe and Asia, where Cemex also does business. Trent has a $46 price target on Cemex stock, which recently sold for $33.

At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares of companies mentioned in this column.

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