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Michael Brush

Company Focus9/2/2009 12:01 AM ET

4 'zombie' stocks better off dead

Meltdown casualties Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GM and AIG soared in August, with tons of shares changing hands. But don't be fooled; they're worthless.

By Michael Brush
MSN Money

The market rebound off the March lows is even raising the dead.

I'm talking about four "zombie" stocks in particular, housing meltdown casualties with no real value by virtually any measure. Yet they're up 100% or more in the past month, with big numbers of shares changing hands as traders game the system.

As an investor, you need to avoid these zombies at all costs. Don't get drawn in by the hoopla.

The two most prominent are those ill-fated twins of the housing disaster, Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs). These are the government-sponsored entities that used to print money by guaranteeing and buying home mortgages.

Now they're mere shells reporting huge losses. If they ever manage to make money again, it will go to pay back huge loans from the government -- $100 billion and climbing. Average shareholders don't have a prayer.

Yet during the month, these two zombies soared around 300% on enough volume to rank them at times among the market's most-traded stocks.

Another zombie is General Motors' pre-bankruptcy stock. Motors Liquidation (MTLQQ, news, msgs) contains little more than unwanted factories and legal claims against the company. Yet in early August, it surged 140% on huge volume.

Motors Liquidation is at least relegated to the market netherworld of the pink sheets; Fannie and Freddie still trade on the New York Stock Exchange. So does the insurance company American International Group (AIG, news, msgs), which traded up as much as 330% in August. The AIG case is more arguable, but I still consider it a zombie.

All four stocks took a beating yesterday as September opened. But that only begs the question: If these stocks are better off dead, why have investors been bidding them up?

Who's playing with zombies?

Some of the buying is legitimate, coming from investors who went short, selling borrowed shares in hopes of buying them back at a lower price later. Now they need to cover their positions by buying replacements for the borrowed shares to lock in their gains.

Beaten-down shareholders are also likely to sell on any move up. But these factors don't explain all the action.

Video: Why are Fannie and Freddie moving up?

Some buyers chasing these zombies are clearly getting duped by penny-stock touts -- who take positions in dirt-cheap stocks, talk them up and then sell. Back in July, for example, one penny-stock service issued a news release stating that the GM zombie "emerged from the remains of bankrupt General Motors Corp. by taking over the best assets of the biggest U.S. automaker."

The best assets? Hardly. The same release also stated correctly that the real GM -- the part that actually makes cars -- is now a private company. But analysts aren't sure people get that. "I think there are some retail investors out there who don't realize Motors Liquidation is not GM," says David Whiston, who covers the auto sector for Morningstar. Otherwise, its movements are "just baffling," says Whiston.

These zombies have also come back to life because of reckless gambling. "Given the rise in many of the financial stocks, people are looking around for things that rhyme, and they looked to Fannie and Freddie," says Matthew Warren, who follows those stocks for Morningstar. "People are day-trading those stocks, but I imagine that it won't end well."

Very low-priced stocks tend to attract this sort of action. But average investors who try to play the game are painfully overmatched by high-volume traders who can move cheap stocks with their buys, then exit positions, leaving others to take the losses. If you choose to play this game, you're on your own.

Here's why I think you should avoid these zombies at all costs.

Continued: 'The value is zero'

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Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. © 2009. All rights reserved.
StockScouter data provided by Gradient Analytics, Inc.
Quotes supplied by Interactive Data.
MSN Money's editorial goal is to provide a forum for personal finance and investment ideas. Our articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual circumstances.
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Wednesday, September 02, 2009 5:10:51 AM
Each year, the IRS releases changes in the US Federal income tax laws. Much hasn't changed for the past years but the recession during the last quarter of 2008 has been a great deal of influence to the new changes in tax laws. Tough economic conditions such as a recession mean that the taxpayer should pay special attention to those changes because this change may greatly affect your finances.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009 6:20:08 AM
"which helps short sellers find the stock they need to borrow go short." ???
Wednesday, September 02, 2009 6:39:24 AM
A firm grasp of the obvious......
Wednesday, September 02, 2009 7:29:37 AM

I know that Freddie & Fannie...A joke...But what the HEY*

Bought at .84. a share & sold it at 2.02 ...a share.

Made a little profit on a Worthless Stock.

When a person can do this...Something is wrong. 

Wednesday, September 02, 2009 7:44:03 AM
Hey... you forgot to add all the zombie banks like C, JPM, BofA, etc. if these guys had to mark assets to market  and not "make believe" they would ALL be shut down for being waaaay under capotilized.  Welcome to our zombie nation.  See japan maket for the last 20 year for an idea of how this will play out, only remember we are a net importer and japan is a net exproter.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009 8:30:02 AM

The author points out but doesn't drive home the fact that the shorters are what is driving the activity of these useless stocks.  As the they lose their cool at the slightest good news, there will always be other people profit from that.  Any idiot can bet a short on a junk stock, the real money makers will know how to prey on that obvious strategy.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009 9:04:21 AM
I fail to see why short term stock trading as a hobby or part time business is such a bad thing and always gets a bad rap. Yes, and that includes regular trading of low price (under $5) companies. When stock prices go up and down in some type of regular fashion, why should we not cash in? The biggest problem I see is the stinking taxes. 
Wednesday, September 02, 2009 9:58:13 AM
I don't play these games myself, but I've always wondered "why not game the gamers?". I think one way might be to subscribe to one of those more "dependable" penny-stock newsletters, and study their technique in order to gauge their usual timing. How many times do they usually tout the stock, before the stock "hits the fan"? If you can get a feel for their approach, then you could make a timed entry and profit almost as large as the guy touting the stock. Just don't get too greedy about it, while you're attempting to maximize the gain. If you were to stay safely within their usual timing envelope, you could let them do all the footwork and take a nice profit for yourself. There's just something beautiful in that, to me at least.

Actually, if you became confident that you had their technique nailed down, and some serious money to risk, you could profit huge and wreck these guys at the same time. On the other hand, you might in effect be "biting the hand that feeds you", but still. There's always another scammer ready to try to take your money from you. That doesn't mean you HAVE to play the fool.

For me personally, it's not worth the bother, but it's yet another of the many ways to make money in the stock market. Maybe I'll give it a try, someday.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009 10:07:27 AM

Isn't it in the government's interest that FNM and FRE remain private.  If they take over the roles of these companies what are the odds that they get their money back.  If they make the proper changes to the way they regulate the loans, deritatives etc. they will become profitable companies that can pay off the loans over a long period time.

 

As for Aig, I've read people say that If it weren't for the bailout they would have negative value.  Well once they sell off certain aspect of their company and reorgaize won't they too be able to make profits again and pay off their debt plus interest over a period of time?  I'm thinking long term here.  Not one or two years.  I like seeing the price overvalued as shorters get punished for helping to drive a company into the dirt

Wednesday, September 02, 2009 10:08:52 AM
The problem I see with short-term trading is that it pushes the market from the realm of "investment" to "casino."  It creates huge volatility and instability in the market as "investors" place bets on what direction the market is going to move rather than looking at the fundamentals of a given stock.  If I could make any one change to stabilize the market, it would be to require all purchases be held for 30 days.  I know that would create a shadow market, but I still think it would eliminate the gambling atmosphere and allow legitimate investors to prosper.
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