Too old to drive?

By Debora Vrana

Think our roads already resemble a survivalist obstacle course? Get ready for 2025, when an estimated 40 million baby boomers will clog the left lanes of America, blinkers flashing, one foot trembling over the brake.

Though motorists older than 70 drive far less frequently than other age groups, they already account for an outsize proportion of fatalities, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The death rate per mile traveled for drivers over 85 is four times that of the 30-59 age group. The only group more dangerous than senior citizens is teen-agers. Senior drivers have special trouble judging speed and distances, which causes an inordinate number of rear-end and left-hand-turn accidents.

Aging drivers, higher risks

And the older drivers get, the bigger the risk they pose. A 2002 Florida study found that seniors older than 85 pose a sharply higher risk. The state's Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles found at least 20% of the state's 250,000 drivers older than 85 suffered from dementia. The report also said that crash rates for drivers with cognitive dementia were 7.6 times higher than other drivers.

But people 65 and older are the fastest-growing demographic in the United States, and, by 2030, a quarter of all licensed drivers will be in that age group.

Boomers are expected to live longer with better health overall than their predecessors, meaning more of them will be confident about driving greater distances and clutching their car keys well into their 90s. That's the fear of some traffic safety experts.

Is a safety crisis looming?

• In 2003, 10 people died and dozens more were injured after 86-year-old George Russell Weller lost control of his car and plowed through the Santa Monica Farmers Market in California. He told investigators he may have stepped on the accelerator instead of the brake.

• In April 2005, a 99-year-old woman drove the wrong way on a Wisconsin interstate at night and collided head-on with a pickup. She was killed, and the 40-year-old truck driver was injured. She would have tuned 100 in September. Her license wasn't up for renewal until 2006.

• In Florida, six people were injured in 2003 when a man in his early 70s drove into booths at a farmers market in Flagler Beach.

More elderly drivers on the road

It couldn't come at a worse time. Driving today is more difficult than ever because of more traffic, bigger vehicles and faster speeds. Increasingly, lawmakers are concerned about the future safety of the nation's roadways, as only a few states currently identify which seniors should not be driving.

"Without a doubt, there's a lot of concern here," said David Grabowski, a professor of the economics of aging at Harvard Medical School, who has studied elderly drivers.

Boomers will begin turning 65 in 2011, and by 2030, one out of five drivers will be 65 or older -- up from one in eight drivers today, studies predict.

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Readers react to "Too old to drive?": "I believe with all my heart, that any person over the age of 75 should have to take a driving test again." And: "What rubbish! Our roads are dangerous because of those who drive 15 and 20 miles-an-hour over the posted speed limits…" Click here for more.

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Older drivers are more likely than their younger counterparts to be involved in traffic accidents and killed in collisions, given the same driving conditions, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). And older drivers are more likely to die from injuries in crashes that would not kill younger drivers. In 2003, more than 5,300 Americans older than 70 died in highway crashes, according to NHTSA.

Still, older drivers currently tend to be safer because they drive less frequently than younger ones and self-regulate by not driving at night or avoiding freeways.

That's all expected to change with the boomers, a generation that has thrived on mobility and living far from city centers, which at least have public transportation. This generation is expected to also be the first with a large number of elderly female drivers, accustomed to the same independence as men. Like men, they will be reluctant to relinquish their mobility, meaning more old, small and frail drivers will be on the road, experts said.

A symbol of independence

"There's good news and bad news with the boomers," said Dr. Bella Dinh-Zarr, national director of traffic safety policy for AAA, the nonprofit motorist club. "They are much more eager to do things their own way and take risks, but the good news is if we give them the tools to gauge information about their health and driving skills, they will take action."

In America, many seniors fight to stay behind the wheel despite the effects of aging on eyesight, mobility and reaction time. The lack of public transportation in many areas, especially rural ones, keeps many seniors fighting to stay behind the wheel.

"In many parts of America, if you don't drive you are out of luck," said Elinor Ginzler, director of livable communities with the AARP, which represents more than 34 million seniors. "In America, the car is an important symbol of vitality and independence."

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