Imagine financing a home purchase with a no-interest mortgage. You'd probably never want to move again.
Granted, it's doubtful you'll ever have that luxury. But if rates continue to drop, as some in the mortgage industry suggest they may -- especially after the Federal Reserve's recent statement that it was prepared for more extraordinary measures to pump up the economy -- mortgage rates could inch in the direction of 0%. Continued concerns of deflation may also put pressure on mortgage rates."So long as the Fed allows the word 'deflation' to get bandied about, mortgage rates will ease lower," Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage, in Cincinnati, commented in an e-mail.
How much lower?
"In theory, the only stopping point there is 0% -- that's where all nominal interest rates have to stop," said Mike Larson, a real-estate analyst for Weiss Research.Think about it: 0% financing has long worked as an incentive in the auto industry. And homebuilders have been known to pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, so these days it wouldn't be unheard of for them to entice people with a 2% or 3% mortgage rate, at least for a period of time, Larson said.
"Do I think we will see (0% mortgages) in our lifetimes? No, I don't," Larson said.
Even during times of deflation, try telling an investor that he'd do well to buy a security with zero return, said Keith Gumbinger, a vice president of HSH Associates, a provider of consumer loan information. It'd be a hard sell.
Jim Sahnger, a mortgage planner with the Palm Beach Financial Network, isn't sure how a 0% mortgage would be funded, "keeping in mind that rates on the street come from lower-priced coupons than what borrowers pay," he said in an e-mail. In essence, to fund a 0% mortgage, the investor would get a negative return -- "unless there were significant fees on the front to compensate for costs to originate, deliver, default, etc."
That isn't to say mortgage rates couldn't drop further from their current levels. After all, two years ago, few people would have thought a 4% mortgage was possible, Larson said.
Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have dropped more than a percentage point since the end of the recession in June 2009, averaging 4.27% last week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Over the summer, the average rate on the 30-year loan broke record low after record low.
Since 1975, fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen over the 12 months after every recession, with the exception of the 1980 downturn, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. The 0.7-point decline from June 2009 to June 2010 was "the largest decline during the first year of recovery over the last six recessions," he said.
Of course, as Larson said, "this is not your father's recession."
Hitting bottom
We don't know how much lower rates could fall, if they fall at all. But let's continue to play a little game of "what if mortgage rates hit zero."Rates at or near 0% could bring more first-time homebuyers out of hiding to seek out extremely favorable financing for a house, Sahnger said. Get more buyers in the mix, and demand for homes could kick up, thereby helping boost home prices, he said.
If this 0% financing were available for refinancing, "demand would surge to the point where banks, title companies and appraisers would be over capacity and understaffed. In theory, hiring would increase to meet demand," Green said. "In addition, refi-eligible homeowners would see a marked reduction in monthly payments, spurring consumer spending."
It's important to note, however, that eligibility is no small matter, especially due to the ranks of homeowners who are "underwater" on their mortgages, meaning their homes are worth less than what they owe on them. Without the help of a government program, many of those homeowners can't refinance.
Continued: Many Americans don't qualify for a mortgage


