Could mortgage rates drop all the way to zero? © Creatas/Photolibrary

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Could mortgage rates drop to zero?

The auto industry uses 0% interest to sell cars. So why not the housing industry? Here's the likely scenario if interest rates keep moving lower.

By MarketWatch

Imagine financing a home purchase with a no-interest mortgage. You'd probably never want to move again.

Granted, it's doubtful you'll ever have that luxury. But if rates continue to drop, as some in the mortgage industry suggest they may -- especially after the Federal Reserve's recent statement that it was prepared for more extraordinary measures to pump up the economy -- mortgage rates could inch in the direction of 0%. Continued concerns of deflation may also put pressure on mortgage rates.

"So long as the Fed allows the word 'deflation' to get bandied about, mortgage rates will ease lower," Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage, in Cincinnati, commented in an e-mail.

How much lower?

"In theory, the only stopping point there is 0% -- that's where all nominal interest rates have to stop," said Mike Larson, a real-estate analyst for Weiss Research.

Think about it: 0% financing has long worked as an incentive in the auto industry. And homebuilders have been known to pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, so these days it wouldn't be unheard of for them to entice people with a 2% or 3% mortgage rate, at least for a period of time, Larson said.

But mortgages are different from car loans.

"Do I think we will see (0% mortgages) in our lifetimes? No, I don't," Larson said.

Even during times of deflation, try telling an investor that he'd do well to buy a security with zero return, said Keith Gumbinger, a vice president of HSH Associates, a provider of consumer loan information. It'd be a hard sell.

Jim Sahnger, a mortgage planner with the Palm Beach Financial Network, isn't sure how a 0% mortgage would be funded, "keeping in mind that rates on the street come from lower-priced coupons than what borrowers pay," he said in an e-mail. In essence, to fund a 0% mortgage, the investor would get a negative return -- "unless there were significant fees on the front to compensate for costs to originate, deliver, default, etc."

That isn't to say mortgage rates couldn't drop further from their current levels. After all, two years ago, few people would have thought a 4% mortgage was possible, Larson said.

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have dropped more than a percentage point since the end of the recession in June 2009, averaging 4.27% last week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Over the summer, the average rate on the 30-year loan broke record low after record low.

Since 1975, fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen over the 12 months after every recession, with the exception of the 1980 downturn, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. The 0.7-point decline from June 2009 to June 2010 was "the largest decline during the first year of recovery over the last six recessions," he said.

Of course, as Larson said, "this is not your father's recession."

Hitting bottom

We don't know how much lower rates could fall, if they fall at all. But let's continue to play a little game of "what if mortgage rates hit zero."

Rates at or near 0% could bring more first-time homebuyers out of hiding to seek out extremely favorable financing for a house, Sahnger said. Get more buyers in the mix, and demand for homes could kick up, thereby helping boost home prices, he said.

If this 0% financing were available for refinancing, "demand would surge to the point where banks, title companies and appraisers would be over capacity and understaffed. In theory, hiring would increase to meet demand," Green said. "In addition, refi-eligible homeowners would see a marked reduction in monthly payments, spurring consumer spending."

It's important to note, however, that eligibility is no small matter, especially due to the ranks of homeowners who are "underwater" on their mortgages, meaning their homes are worth less than what they owe on them. Without the help of a government program, many of those homeowners can't refinance.

Continued: Many Americans don't qualify for a mortgage

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28Comments
12/19/2010 8:15 PM
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I AGREE WITH PAST GOV.     BY PASSING THE STIMULUS MONEY OUT  TO TAX PAYING AMERICANS, WE WOULD HAVE USED IT IN WAYS THAT WOULD STIMULATE THE ECONOMY. CUT OUT THE FREEBY PROGRAMS. MAKE GOVERMENT BALANCE  CHECK BOOKS LIKE YOU AND ME, AND IF YOU DONT HAVE THE MONEY DONT BUY. GET RID OF THE DRAIN ON OUR  SOCIAL PROGAMS THAT WAS DESIGNED FOR OUR ELDERLY AND RETIRED.  IF YOU ARENT  HERE LEAGLE, PAY TAXES,  AND SUPPORT YOUR OWN GET THE HELL OUT OF AMERICA..   I PAY MY WAY AND FOR MY KIDS AND NOW THEY ARE PAYING THEIR WAY.   I AM  TIRED OUR SYSTEMS BEING ABUSED,  WHICH ULTAMATLY  COSTS  ME MORE THAN IT SHOULD
12/02/2010 9:25 AM
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Actually, poster UVUVUV is not certifiably insane, just an ObamaCrat.  Basically, it's the same thing.  More free handouts for everybody.
10/19/2010 9:36 AM
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If the gov. would have paid every house off with its bank bail out money no one would be in the place they are today
10/17/2010 11:44 PM
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there is a good solution for solving mortgage crisis. i know it sounds lame but if everyone does the math right and understand few suggestions as i write below it may be the key to getting us out of the mess.

   every state has powerball and lotto. let the states do the inventory of all the foreclosed houses and defaulted houses.

instead of giving money to the winner, give them the house paid off by the proceeds coming from lotto collection. every saturdays and Wednesday drawing they will be giving two houses a week to who wins the lotto. and use the collected lotto money to pay down the price of the house.

   right now money is rewarded in millions to whoever wins. so instead of giving money give houses free.

   this way it will move the housing industry statewide and all the debt will be paid and revive the housing and construction nationally.

10/12/2010 9:18 PM
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This article is incredibly disingenuous. In the early 1980s the interest rates were dropped drastically even when credit cards and the Fed had rates at 15% plus. Why? Because the banks wanted to protect a bogus asset value on the property.  Instead of dropping the selling price on a condo, they tanked the interest rate. They are doing exactly the same thing with cars right now. Compare a $22,000 car purchase at 0% to a $15,000 car purchase at 15.5% (both 5 tear loans).  The total amount you have to pay is virtually IDENTICAL.

It's a game the bankers play. And spare the tax deduction blah blah. Affordability is the issue. They're doing a devious end run around the laws of supply and demand. Hey, bankers, there is LOW demand for cars so you have to drop the price. Hey, bankers, there is  low demand for houses so you have to drop the price. It's time for bankers and the rest of us to get real. According to basic finance, you cannot afford a house which exceeds between 2.5 and 4 (max) times your annual gross income. Do the math. If you make $50,000 a year, you can afford a house between $125,000 and $200,000 tops. And the top target is contingent on you NOT having a pack of credit card, personal and car loans. 

Our median income in the USA is dropping like a rock. That means the house prices must do the same. It's called supply and demand. Live with it.

If you are hoping for inflation to save your ASSet, forget it. Bernake's game keeps the funny money at a level you can only dream about. Besides, people are paying down debt faster than the Fed can pump electronic digits into Goldman Sachs and friends. It won't shore up your house selling price regardless of how many bought and paid for bank appraisers in cahoots with your county property tax appraisers try to game you. The buyer isn't going to bite. However, you can expect more chicanery in the form of creative fees by the banking charlatans slapped on you after you have signed the dotted line. And don't expect our good government to help you. They don't care about us. They always side with the banks.

10/12/2010 9:14 PM
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The federal reserve bank is to blame for all this economic downturn. they play with interest rates and GDP to predict how the nation is doing economically. looks like they need to change how interest rates are set.

   by lowering value of dollar, it makes us compete globally with other nations. but there is only difference, all the third world countries have become better at managing their currency. they play the same game plan as fed's play.

    china, india are raising their interest rate. they have the biggest middle class society, where demand is more for goods. they have more growth in every sector you can imagine. we can only sell products to those countries if they

buy our own manufactured goods. which is not happening.

  next step was increasing tariff on all products coming from there. consumers in USA is paying more for it. the cost of tariff is passed on to consumers, since they sale in huge volume still they make profit. in past we had used dollar as huge leverage against third world countries, looks like they

seem to adapt well and keep their economy growing.

 They are dumping dollars and buying gold. looks like gold standard is coming back. nations are fed up with currency manipulation. worldwide all the currency are loosing value. that is why gold is going up. nationally for a trade to happen it will be only gold which will change hands. currency will fade.

  we need to fix the nations rate permanently, since its not doing any good. if we change rates to lower the value of currency, we are digging a huge hole which will drag us down.

  i think it is time that we use our own resources and not rely on oil and products from other countries. we have enough educated people. like china the federal reserve will have to  back up all the small businesses financially. so we can become strong. subsidize small businesses. small businesses hire 60 percent of the workforce. they use their own capital to be efficient without any ones help. now its the fed's who has to back them financially with lending capital with zero interest. for businesses to survive they need backing of fed's at every level. china is getting stronger in manufacturing since it is run by chinese government backing. we should do the same thing and make our nation strong. this should be done nationwide so we become competitive.

 looks like with old way we are hurting ourselves. businesses are failing because we cant compete globally. but with fed's backing with capital we will be able to achieve this goal and move the economy out.

10/12/2010 8:16 PM
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Lets see, the banks can refinance all their debt with free money from the government and make a killing but the tax payers get screwed over. We are controlled by the crooks on wall st and the crooks in DC.

10/12/2010 6:52 PM
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I will give you one simple reason that 0% (or something near it) will NEVER happen: there is no profit in it. No lender would lend with no credit spread for 15, 20, 30 year long terms.

 

The only reason that 0% loans exist for cars is that the manufacturers subsidize the cost of the loan to sell cars.

 

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There isn't anyone that will do a Zero % interest rate on a home.  Nor anyone silly enough to go for it.

Even if it was a new home and the builder financed at Zero %, the builder would have to charge $250,000 for a home that cost him $200,000 to build, leaving him with $50,000 over a 30 year period to collect (@ $139.00/month out of the monthly buyer payment).  The home buyer would pay almost $700 per month.  

The builder would have to have someone collect for him when he was in a nursing retirement home on all the homes he would have to build to make a living.

That cost to the builder includes the interest rates on the money he has to borrow to build the house, employee wages, insurances and Taxes, etc.   The home would probably be equivalent to a $50,000 home.  So the person is actually buying a home that no one could live in at an inflated price.  

An equivalent $50,000 home, for 30 years at 16.5% interest would cost $250,000 with $200,000 of that in interest at about $700 a month payment.

If the cost of materials go up, then the cost to the homeowner must go up or the size of the house must go down.

 

Zig Ziglar said, "There is no such thing as a free lunch."  Or Zero percent loans.

 

10/12/2010 3:15 PM
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kmd511 - Obama announced that the recession officially ended in June 2009.
10/12/2010 2:54 PM
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It is not about the interest rate any more. PROPERTY TAX is killing real estate market - in most cases interest is much lower then tax. Here in NJ I am paying $8400 tax for 1100sf home build in 1950s and about $5K in interest....

Home improvement is also dying for the same TAX reason. After spending lots of your own (already taxed) money to improve your home and the area, you will be penalized in form of even higher property tax. Lets do something!

10/12/2010 1:38 PM
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Whatever the interest rates turn out to be, I recommned that you not do buisness with Wells Fargo. They insert terms into agreements that are unfair and have no sympathy at all to the negative impact they have on customers. Do not do business with WELLS FARGO>
10/12/2010 1:22 PM
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I find it odd the author writes "since the recession ended in 2009". The recession ended? Really? That's news to the millions of unemployed.
10/12/2010 12:48 PM
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As a homeowner who faithfully pays their mortgage every month I would prefer some help for current homeowners. There is no way I could refinace because my home is under water. If they did something for people who are struggling but still barely are making it, like adjust principal to refect the actual value of a home, I think that would greatly help the economy. I can look around my home and see atleast 10 things I want or need to have done or purchase for my home but simply can not afford. If there was something to help people like me, like they help banks, auto industries, etc. I would gladly be spending some of that extra money to help the economy. But as long as my home price drops, my bills increase, and job security is an issue, and there is no type of help in sight for me,  I will be holding on to every extra cent I get, which is not much.

It is almost like saying, hey, you are working hard, busting your butt to just get by, good for you, you get nothing. But let's make it easier for others, or help people and businesses who made bad decisions.

10/12/2010 12:39 PM
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Common sense will create opportunities. For everyone who claims an opportunity there will be someone who looses an opportunity. If an entity were to purchase all the foreclosed housing properties and administer them as a personal business I think they could do quite well for themselves,If they worked hard and enjoyed the work. In today's economic climate I would rather owe dollars than be owed dollars. Assuming a $60.00 per sq. foot value for decent housing and an interest rate bellow 3%,good real estate people could work these properties through rentals and sales at a decent profit.
10/12/2010 12:28 PM
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The only people who can qualify for homes now probably already have one or several.  We are becoming a serf society as in the days of old in Ireland where the landowners were wealthy and the peasants rented their homes.  That's what is happening en-masse across America.  Instead of banks dealing fairly with home owners and modifying or refinancing their loans with the bail-out money they were given they are just hoarding it.  The ones who are buying houses are investors who are then renting them out.  That has always been, done nothing new and there is a place for it.  But when the trend of the entire American housing market is going towards creating a ruling class over over-lords who own most of the homes and the average joe being forced into the role of a serf.  We've gone back to the bad old days of the pre-1900 Ireland where we are nothing but white slaves working to make the fat cats richer paying their low mortgages because the banks stonewalled the refinancing of our impossibly high ones.
10/12/2010 10:58 AM
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uvuvuv.......LMAO.... good one!!!!! I KNOW your joking.....but the sad part is that some people won't know that and really think that's a good idea....lmao
10/12/2010 10:03 AM
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"In theory, the only stopping point there is 0%"
Zero percent is not good enough for me.  I want to be paid 5-10% interest..
10/12/2010 9:41 AM
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Japan has been working with lower interest rates

for is it 10 years or may be 20. The people who run

this country haven't learned any thing from them.

I can see it hasn't works yet. We need something new.

auto companies (sorryI guess new to this) see where it got

them.  

10/12/2010 9:32 AM
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Where exactly is the money coming from that banks are lending?  Nobody's putting money in CD's at 1% interest.  Maybe we should raise interest rates, but make all existing mortgages fully assumable.  This may be the only incentive people have to NOT walk away from underwater mortgages.
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